Retrospectives

The annual meeting is the major event where ISSS members -- new and old -- come to share ideas and discuss progress on research and projects.

Generally, the pattern of venues has been to alternate meeting locations, one year in the United States followed by another year abroad. This isn't a rule, just a pattern. Since not everyone can attend every meeting, these retrospectives may serve to fill in a few gaps between events.

These retrospectives are not professionally-developed works, but instead contributions by volunteers from the society.  If you find some of the content interesting, please contact the original speakers or participants in the meeting.

Meeting Retrospective Original conference plans
San Jose 2012 [San Jose 2012 retrospective
(work in process, audio complete)
]
[San Jose 2012 conference]
Hull 2011 [Hull 2011 retrospective
(work in process, materials being collected)
]
[Hull 2011 conference]
Waterloo 2010 (digital media in post-production) [Waterloo 2010 conference]
Brisbane 2009 (digital media in post-production) [Brisbane 2009 conference]
Madison 2008 [Madison 2008 retrospective] [Madison 2008 conference]
Tokyo 2007 [Tokyo 2007 retrospective] [Tokyo 2007 conference]
Sonoma 2006 [Sonoma 2006 retrospective] [Sonoma 2006 conference]
Cancun 2005 [Cancun 2005 retrospective] [Cancun 2005 conference]
Asilomar 2004 ... [Asilomar 2004 conference]
Crete 2003 [Crete 2003 retrospective] [Crete 2003 conference]
Shanghai 2002 [Shanghai 2002 retrospective] [Shanghai 2002 conference]
[Shanghai 2000 abstracts]
Asilomar 2001 ... [Asilomar 2001 conference]
Toronto 2000 [Toronto 2000 retrospective] [Toronto 2000 conference]
[Toronto 2000 papers table of contents (in PDF)]
Asilomar 1999 [Asilomar 1999 retrospective] [Asilomar 1999 conference]
Atlanta 1998 [Atlanta 1998 retrospective] [Atlanta 1998 conference]

The newest audio and video content is now was available at http://media.isss.org". Part of that content is syndicated on a Youtube channel at youtube.com/user/systemsmovement and was on iTunes at http://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/isss-conference-audio/id552809318. Older content is was gradually being migrated over to http://media.isss.org, so you might want to have been able to subscribe to the feeds at http://media.isss.org/podcasts/feed/isss-conference-audio.xml and http://media.isss.org/podcasts/feed/isss-conference-video.xml for updates.

The ISSS web site was re-architected after the Sonoma 2006 meeting, and after the Asilomar 2004 meeting.  Please excuse the mismatches of style in formatting across the years.

Cancun 2005 Retrospective

Cancun 2005 Retrospective: The 49th Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

[Friday, July 1] | [Saturday, July 2] | [Monday, July 4] | [Tuesday, July 4]

The 49th Annual Conference of the International Society for the Systems Sciences, was held in Cancun, Mexico from July 1 to 5, 2005. This page includes materials released publically, for individuals who were unable to attend the conference. The final conference program (1.1 MB) summarizes the activities from the meeting.

Note: These digests do not reflect the entire conference program. They reflect only observations contributed by members of the Systemic Business Community and the ISSS.

Friday, July 1

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
Friday,
 9:20 a.m.
Russell Ackoff, "Why Organizations are Slow to Adopt Systems Thinking" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(24 minutes, 12 MB)
Friday,
10:00 a.m.
Enrique Herrscher, "The Systems Approach: An Area of Knowledge, or a Passion?" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(30 minutes, 14 MB)
Friday,
10:20 a.m.
Russell Ackoff, "Questions for Russell Ackoff" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(21 minutes, 10 MB)
Friday,
11:15 a.m.
Russell Ackoff, "Discussion for Russell Ackoff" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(22 minutes, 11 MB)

[jump to top of page]

Saturday, July 2

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
Saturday,
 9:20 a.m.
Timothy F. H. Allen, "Narratives and transdisciplines for a post-industrial world" [Digest as HTML]

[Powerpoint show] (4 MB)

[Research paper as Word document]
[MP3 audio]
(48 minutes, 23 MB)
Saturday,
10:45 a.m.
Charles Francois, "Commentary on Timothy F. H. Allen's presentation" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(14 minutes, 6 MB)
Saturday,
11:20 a.m.
Timothy F. H. Allen, "Questions to Timothy F. H. Allen" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(15 minutes, 7 MB)
Saturday,
11:40 a.m.
David Ing, "Launching the ISSS Web Site — Interactive" [Powerpoint show] (1 MB) [MP3 audio]
(30 minutes, 15 MB)

[jump to top of page]

Monday, July 4

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
Monday,
 9:20 a.m.
Jim Spohrer, "Why the world needs more systems thinkers.focused on service systems" [Powerpoint show] (3.5 MB) [MP3 audio]
(68 minutes, 33 MB)
Monday,
 3:00 p.m.
Debora Hammond, "ISSS 50th Annual Conference" [Powerpoint show] (1.5 MB) [MP3 audio]
(38 minutes, 18 MB)

[jump to top of page]

Tuesday, July 5

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
Tuesday,
9:10 a.m.
Michael C. Jackson, "Creative Holism: A Critical Systems Approach to Complex Problem Situations" [Digest as HTML]

[Powerpoint show] (600 KB)
MP3 audio being edited
(48 minutes, 23 MB)
Tuesday,
10:20 a.m.
Michael C. Jackson, "Questions to Michael Jackson" MP3 audio being edited
(26 minutes, 13 MB)
Tuesday,
10:50 a.m.
Kyoichi Jim Kijima, "New Directions of Systems Research in Japan" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(44 minutes, 21 MB)

[jump to top of page]

Sonoma 2006 retrospective

The 50th Annual Conference of the International Society for the Systems Sciences, was held in Sonoma, California, USA from July 9 to 14, 2006. This page includes materials released publically, for individuals who were unable to attend the conference.

Sonoma 2006 Retrospective: The 50th Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

 

[Sunday, July 9] | [Monday, July 10] | [Tuesday, July 11] | [Wednesday, July 11] | [Thursday, July 12] | [Friday, July 13]

 

 

Note: These digests do not reflect the entire conference program. They reflect only observations contributed by members of the Systemic Business Community and the ISSS.

Sunday, July 9: Conference Opening

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
Sunday,
 7:30p.m.
"Conference Welcome":  Debora Hammond, Larry Robinson, Lou Kauffman, John Pourdehnad [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(28 minutes, 13 MB)
Sunday,
 8:00p.m.
Fritjof Capra, "Complexity and Life" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(90 minutes, 42 MB)

[jump to top of page]

Monday, July 10: The Dynamics of Complex Systems

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
Monday,
 9:20 a.m.
"Welcome", Debora Hammond, Larry Robinson, Gary Metcalf, Alexander & Kathia Laszlo [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(33 minutes, 15 MB)
Monday,
 9:35 a.m.
Ralph Abraham, "The Dynamics of Complex Systems" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(14 minutes, 7 MB)
Monday,
 10:00 a.m.
Yaneer Bar Yam, "The Dynamics of Complex Systems" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(30 minutes, 14 MB)
Monday,
 10:25 a.m.
George Richardson, "Dynamic Complexity" [Powerpoint show]
(900 KB)
[Digest as HTML]
[MP3 audio]
(27 minutes, 12 MB)
Monday,
 10:55 a.m.
Geoffrey West, "The Dynamics of Complex Systems" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(40 minutes, 18 MB)

[jump to top of page]

Tuesday, July 11: Self-Organization and Living Systems

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
Tuesday,
 9:15 a.m.
Plenary Session Opening   [MP3 audio]
(9 minutes, 4 MB)
Tuesday,
 9:25 a.m.
Juanita Brown, "New Views of Evolution" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(7 minutes, 3 MB)
[MP3 audio]
(2 minutes, 0.8 MB)
Tuesday,
 9:30 a.m.
Sally Goerner, "Today's Copernican Flip: How Dynamic Evolution Changes our Picture of the World & Improves Our Chances of Survival by Putting Collaborative Learning at the Hub of Human Evolution" [Slides as PDF file]
(2.8 MB)
[Digest as HTML]
[MP3 audio]
(30 minutes, 14 MB)
Tuesday,
 10:07 a.m.
Susan Oyama, "Developmental Systems and Evolution" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(22 minutes, 10 MB)
Tuesday,
 11:04 a.m.
Pille Bunnell [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(34 minutes, 16 MB)

[jump to top of page]

Wednesday, July 12: Ecology and Sustainability

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
Wednesday,
 9:15 a.m.
Plenary Session Opening   [MP3 audio]
(14 minutes, 6 MB)
Wednesday,
 9:30 a.m.
Vickers Award Announcement   [MP3 audio]
(5 minutes, 2 MB)
Wednesday,
 9:35 a.m.
John Adams, "The Psychology of Sustainability: Mental Models @ Work" [Powerpoint show]
(500 KB)
[Speaker notes as Word document]
(1.4 MB)
[Digest as HTML]
[MP3 audio]
(30 minutes, 14 MB)
Wednesday,
 10:15 a.m.
Jane Lorand, "Demystifying Two Systems Behind Pioneering Initiatives ..." [Powerpoint show]
(64 KB)
[Digest as HTML]
[MP3 audio]
(22 minutes, 10 MB)
Wednesday,
 10:25 a.m.
Richard Norgaard, "The Ringing Call that Clanks" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(26 minutes, 12 MB)
Wednesday,
 9:30 a.m.
Vickers Award Presentation   [MP3 audio]
(27 minutes, 13 MB)
Wednesday,
 8:00 p.m.
Bridging Generations Panel   [MP3 audio]
(113 minutes, 53 MB)

[jump to top of page]

Thursday, July 13: Social Systems Design & Practice

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
Thursday,
 9:15 a.m.
Plenary Session Opening   [MP3 audio]
(13 minutes, 6 MB)
Thursday,
 9:20 a.m.
"Social Systems Design" Panel
Moderator: Todd Johnston
Panelists: John Broadbent, Alexander & Kathia Laszlo, Gail Taylor
[Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(14 minutes, 6 MB)
[MP3 audio]
(85 minutes, 40 MB)

[jump to top of page]

Friday, July 14: Integrative Synthesis

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
Friday,
9:15 a.m.
Kyoichi (Jim) Kijima, ISSS Incoming President [Powerpoint show]
(2.7 MB)
 
Friday,
10:35 a.m.
Pille Bunnell, "Future Scenarios" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(16 minutes, 7 MB)
Friday,
10:45 a.m.
Peter Bishop, "Futures" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(2 minutes, 1 MB)
Friday,
11:30 a.m.
Joanna Macy, "The Great Turning" [Digest as HTML] [MP3 audio]
(40 minutes, 19 MB)
Friday,
12:05 p.m.
Conference Closing   [MP3 audio]
(8 minutes, 3 MB)

[jump to top of page]

Lyrics to "Evolution" by Lane Tracy and Poems by Larry Robinson are now available online.

Tokyo 2007 Retrospective

2007/08/06 Monday

10:00 Masuo Aizawa, "Welcome" [digest] [MP3 audio]
(9 minutes, 4 MB)
10:10 Jim Kijima, "Smart ISSS" [digest]
[slides as PDF] (84 KB)
[MP3 audio]
(19 minutes, 9 MB)
10:30 Hiroshi Deguchi, "Creation of Agent Based Social System Science" [digest] [MP3 audio]
(14 minutes, 7 MB)
10:45 Hiroshi Inomata, "Japan’s 'Value oriented diplomacy' and the Rule of Law" [digest] [MP3 audio]
(54 minutes, 25 MB)
11:40 Takahiro Fujimoto, "Manufacturing as a System of Design Information" [digest]
[slides as PDF] (800 KB)
[MP3 audio]
(54 minutes, 25 MB)
13:45 Teruyasu Murakami, "The Ubiquitous Network and Challenges to the Information System" [digest]
[slides as PDF] (4.7 MB)
[MP3 audio]
(45 minutes, 21 MB)

2007/08/07 Tuesday

11:00 2007/08/07 11:00 Panel Discussion: Fusion in Systems Sciences: East and West, Soft and Hard [digest]
[slides as PDF - Negoro] (95 KB)
[slides as PDF - Kauffman] (2.1 MB)
[slides as PDF - Swanson] (19 KB)
[slides as PDF - Gu] (755 KB)
[MP3 audio - Negoro] (3 minutes, 2 MB)
[MP3 audio - Lane]
(12 minutes, 6 MB)
[MP3 audio - Kauffman] (9 minutes, 4 MB)
[MP3 audio - Swanson] (10 minutes, 5 MB)
[MP3 audio - Gu] (10 minutes, 7 MB)
[MP3 audio - panel] (38 minutes, 18 MB)
13:45 Hiroshi Deguchi, "Systems Sciences Toward the New Liberal Arts for the Global Society of 21st Century" [digest]
[slides as PDF] (9.1 MB)
[MP3 audio]
(45 minutes, 21 MB)

2007/08/08 Wednesday

11:00 Debora Hammond, "Steps Towards a Sustainable Future" [digest]
[slides as PDF] (386 KB)
[MP3 audio]
(43 minutes, 20 MB)
11:45 Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, "Building Back Aceh Better through Reconstruction and Reintegration" [digest]
[Slides as PDF] (1.8 MB)
[MP3 audio]
(54 minutes, 26 MB)
13:45 Gerald Midgley, "Towards A New Framework for Evaluating Systemic and Participative Methods" [digest]
[Slides as PDF] (100 KB)
[MP3 audio]
(43 minutes, 20 MB)
18:35 Barfour Adjei-Barwuah, "Strengthening Strategic Alliances through Science, Technology and Engineering Cooperation: implementing the Africa's Science and Technology Plan of Action" [digest] [MP3 audio]
(46 minutes, 22 MB)

2007/08/09 Thursday

08:05 Parallel Session: Systems Applications in Business and Industry, Session 1 [digest] [MP3 audio]
(86 minutes, 40 MB)
10:00 Michael C. Jackson, "Critical Systems Thinking and its Contributions to 21st Century Management Practice" [digest]
[slides as PDF] ((245 KB)
[MP3 audio]
(51 minutes, 21 MB)
10:50 Soho Machida, "New Paradigms of Civilization in the 21st Century" [digest]
[slides as PDF] (1.1 MB)
[MP3 audio]
(54 minutes, 25 MB)
13?50 Yoshiteru Nakamori, "Knowledge Pentagram System" [digest] [MP3 audio]
(37 minutes, 17 MB)
14:40 Parallel Session: Systems Applications in Business and Industry, Session 2 [digest] [MP3 audio]
(79 minutes, 37 MB)
18:00 Talk with ISSS Past Presidents   [MP3 audio]
(60 minutes, 29 MB)

2007/08/10 Friday

09:10 Systems Applications in Business and Industry, Session 3 [digest] [MP3 audio]
(84 minutes, 39 MB)
11:00 Gary Metcalf, "Rigor and Relevance in Systems Work" [digest]
[slides as PDF] (128 KB)
[MP3 audio]
(24 minutes, 11 MB)
11:30 Nicholas Magliocca, "Induced Coupling: An Approach to Modeling and Managing Complex Human-Landscape Interaction" [digest] [MP3 audio]
(18 minutes, 9 MB)
11:50 Nicholas Magliocca, "Student Report" [digest] [MP3 audio]
(5 minutes, 3 MB)
11:55 Jennifer Wilby, "Membership Meeting" [digest] [MP3 audio]
(10 minutes, 5 MB)

2007/08/06 10:00 Masuo Aizawa, "Welcome", ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/06 10:00 Masuo Aizawa, "Welcome", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

[Jim Kijima]

Jim Kijima

Declare the conference as open

Invite Masuo Aizawa, president of Toyko institute of Technology, to welcome for the conference

[Masuo Aizawa]

Masuo Aizawa

Universities undergoing change to become internationally competitive

Recently, universities in Japan have each become independent entities

Tokyo Tech goals:

  • Producing world class graduates
  • World class knowledge
  • Society through world class knowledge

Excellence through diversity

Systems science: diversity for viability

2002 Ministry of Education ... program of international competitiveness

  • Tokyo Tech granted 12 COEs, 5 completed this year
  • This meeting is being cohosted by one of the COEs, Agent-Based Systems, with Kyoichi Kijima as leader

2007/08/06 10:10 Jim Kijima, "Smart ISSS", ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/06 10:10 Jim Kijima,  "Smart ISSS", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Jim Kijima

Jim Kijima

Talk purposes:

  • Power of an academic society in general
  • ISSS

Three concepts:

  • Hard power, soft power, smart power

Original idea from Joseph Nye, well known in International Politics

  • Power of a nation as hard power and soft power
  • Hard power as military and economic power, as the basis for getting other countries to change their position
  • Soft power as ability to move people by argument
  • Shape preferences of other countries

Smart power as an integration of hard power and soft power

  • Ability to attract others

Smart power of an academic society

  • Ability to attract stakeholders/clients

Stakeholders:

  • Researchers and practitioners, especially young
  • Society, including government and public sectors

Systems sciences as a new generation Liberal Arts

  • Propose a new direction

Research aims:

  • Shared map
  • Methodologies
  • Systems models and systems concepts
  • Induction, deduction, abduction

Systems science should be like an intelligence common knowledge, in the next generation

Education:

  • Provide ways of thinking

In Japan, people still have a bit more patience towards academic research that doesn't necessarily produce direct and short-term returns

Fund raising

  • Need to enhance international collaboration
  • Next program: global COE
  • ISSS could play some role in facilitating and coordinating

Ambition in Japan:  to launch a network hub of systems research with support by the Japanese government in 2009

2007/08/06 10:30 Hiroshi Deguchi, "Creation of Agent Based Social System Science", ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/06 10:30 Hiroshi Deguchi,  "Creation of Agent Based Social System Science", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Jim Kijima

[Hiroshi Deguchi]

Hiroshi Deguchi

21st Century COE program an initiative by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Technology and Science

Composed of:

  • Department of Computational Intelligence and Systems Science (Deguchi)
  • Decision Science (Kijima)

Goal: to establish an innovative social science

Mission:

  • Social system theory based on an agent-based approach
  • Tool
  • Analysis and proposals for social policy

Methodology

Bottom-up and functional approach

  • Mutual interaction between personal level internal models and organizational or social level internal modeling

Agent-based simulation model:  

  • SOARS was Spot Oriented Agent Role Simulator, now Social and Organizational Architecture Simulators
  • http://soars.jp

Programming environment:

  • Visual programming environment
  • Simulation engine
  • Hybrid gaming design
  • Supports grid environment

Demo

  • 10,000 agents living in a virtual city
  • 20-minute ticks

Gaming builder

Others:  Artisoc (Chicago), MASON (George Mason U.), Repast, Q

Combination of bottom-up and top-down approach, as design approach

Back to demo:

  • Infected persons, vaccinated people

2007/08/06 10:45 Hiroshi Inomata, "Japan’s 'Value oriented diplomacy' and the Rule of Law", ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/06 10:45 Hiroshi Inomata,  "Japan’s 'Value oriented diplomacy' and the Rule of Law", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Jim Kijima

Originally scheduled to present:  Ichiro Komatsu, Director-General, International Legal Affairs, Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Tokyo, Japan

  • Could not personally deliver this speech
  • Litigation against Russian federation on arrest of Japanese fishing vessels
  • Law of the sea
  • Flew to Hamburg for ITLOS reading of decision

Deputy: Hiroshi Inomata to deliver on his behalf

[Hiroshi Inomata]

Hiroshi Inomata

Absence is historic:  first litigation inititated by Japanese

Systems sciences and international law

  • Diplomacy acts on destabilizing forces
  • Role of  international system operator
  • Manual needed, international law acts as this manual
  • Will of sovereign states
  • As number of interactions increase, clashes increase, requires more resources to resolve, so pre-establishing laws helps

Japan and international law:

  • Value oriented diplomacy and the rule of law
  • History of Japan and international law

Since WWII, 3 pillars

  • Relationship with U.S.
  • U.N.
  • Relationship with local Asian countries

Common philosophy:  to allow Japan to restate itself in international society

  • Now 60 years, in Oriental culture is one cycle
  • Leaving behind the postware regime, fourth pillar:  value oriented diplomacy, introduced in Japan this year

Continued peace and prosperity, enhancement of rule of law, democracy

  • Doesn't mean that Japan has been inactive up to now
  • Have been active in disarmament, environment

Rule of law:  in Japan, since year 604

  • In year 701, rule of law in full scale, Nippon set as the name of the country
  • Thus, Japan has a history as a country back 1300 years

Mid 19th century:  Japan opened up country, abandoning isolation

  • Maintained stable Edo government, but foreign relations meant beginning of international law
  • 1854 convention of Kanagawa opened the country
  • Equal treaties with west:  beginning of modern diplomacy

Potsdam declaration 1945, terminating the state of war

  • Japan had been in a state of war with 50 countries
  • San Francisco Peace treaty:  
    • Some not signatories
    • Soviet Union attended by didn't sign; 
    • China and Taiwan did not attend; 
    • Korea wasn't part of the treaty, it became a separate country

Most favoured nation status, to give equivalent negotiation with San Francisco Peace treaty

Legal consistency is the base for Japan's peace and prosperity

Japan and the international judicial system

International trials:

  • Best way to resolve conflict is through diplomacy
  • Globalization makes it difficult, due to diversity
  • Involve an impartial third party

International Court of Justice

  • Case of Maria Luce, 1872:  Peru slavery contracts, inconsistent with Japanese, Peru claimed international law
    • Russia as third party, Japan won in 1875, end of racial discrimination
  • Japan house tax: had to give licenses for foreign concessions, but then end this
    • Japanese tried to tax houses, not leased lands, objected by French and British
    • Japan lost this case, hurt willingness to be subject to international litigation

Japan involved in intenational court, with League of Nations

  • Japanese led court 1931-1933

Japan has never been in court until now

  • Had started fishing case against Australia, but resolved before going to court

Use of nuclear weapons:  court can't issue statement, when survival of a country is an issue

Commercial issues have been taken to WTO

  • Japan has originally preferred not to go to WTO, but does participate now
  • Ratio:  when Japan is a defendant, ratio in favour is 10%, when Japan is claimant, ratio in favour is 90%
  • Staying defensive is a losing way

Intenational criminal court, started 2002

  • Japan will join this year

Japan's support for improving legal systems in developing countries

  • Cambodia
  • Indonesia
  • Japan moving towards an Kantian world, just as Europe has had

2007/08/06 11:40 Takahiro Fujimoto, "Manufacturing as a System of Design Information", ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/06 11:40 Takahiro Fujimoto,  "Manufacturing as a System of Design Information", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Jim Kijima

Takahiro Fujimoto, Professor, Manufacturing Management

[Takahiro Fujimoto]

Takahiro Fujimoto

Research Center, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan

Read social systems theory when an undergraduate at University of Tokyo

  • One of first English books read with von Bertalanffy
  • Wrote paper on systems approach to irrigation

Entered business administration, particularly of manufacturing, now moving to the services sector

Manufacturing Management Research Center, University of Tokyo since 2003

Systems thinking a common approach

  • Many engineers by training, some social scientists

Root view of manufacturing:

  • Continue view of material flows
  • Would like to expand view to service sectors, by introducing the ideas of design
  • Design concept from engineering, social theories of trade theories and competitiveness from economists and management
  • Herbert Simon had tried to combine these in the Sciences of the Artificial, which is a big influence

Focus:

  • Often visit factories, at least once per week
  • Look at the flows of value to the customers
  • Where does the value reside?  Materials, not really.
  • Most cases it's the design information

e.g. a cup:  it's made of plastic, sometimes it's glass or metal

  • There's someone's design thinking behind this
  • The essence of artifacts is design information

Economists haven't thought of products this way, have thought of them as things that are already designed

  • But someone designed it, somewhere
  • A missing link in standard economics

Design-based competitive advantage

  • Key concept:  design information has value
  • Firm's products and processes are artifacts that have been designed
    • This doesn't say anything about materials, could be product or a service
  • Manufacturing is the creation and transmission of design information to customers
  • e.g. Toyota people think about manufacturing this way, as value flows, and they try to make good flows of value:  fast, smooth, precise, accurate information flows to the customer
  • Monozukuri:  manufacturing capability as a distinct ability to handle flows of design information toward customers
  • Service sector is low productivity

Product-process architecture

  • Design is common denominator

Basic idea:

  • All products and services are a combination of the design information, plus the medium (material)
  • Compare to Aristotle:  object as form and material, and form is more essential
  • Products (as goods and services) are artificial, i.e. something designed
  • If the medium is tangible, it's manufacturing; if intangible, it's services

Penrose, nature of the firm

Manufacturing as the control of flows of design information between productive resources

  • Design information goes together with materials
  • Development, production and sales can all be explained by these ideas of manufacturing as design flows

Value-added time

e.g. body exterior press shop

  • Information transmission time = value-adding time
  • Information non-transmission time is MUDA (waste)

Organizational capabilities:

  • From Nelson and Winter (evolutionary economics) ideas of organizational routines, as repeated control of design information flows between productive resource

Toyota: high productivity and high quality

  • Their focus is muda
  • Muda is unnecessary non-transmission time, which includes inventory, over-production, and defects on the information receiver side
  • Toyota has 600,000 Kaisen activities, because it still has lots of muda

Toyota has 3 layers of capability:

  • Routinized manufacturing capability
  • Routinized learning capability (kaizen)
  • Evolutionary capability (capability-building capability)
    • There are many mistakes that were made, that aren't report, but the failures are source of capabilities
    • (Have written a 400-page book on this)
    • Fortune favours the prepared mind

Don't rush to connect profit performance from organizational capability, at least two intermediaries

  • Organizational capability --> Productive performance --> Market performance --> Profit performance
  • First two are arean of capability-building competition
  • Good companies are alwsys looking at productivity performance: productivity, lead time, conformance quality

Productive performance of Japanese companies was higher in the 1990s, but profits were lower, which speaks to long-term effects

  • By late 1990s, Japanese were slow to catch up on profits, suggesting weak strategy but strong operatoins

Architectural thinking and industrial classification

  • If decompose the products, are they general components or specific components?
  • Modular architecture: product function hierarchy and product structure hierarchy are one-to-one
    • Can recombine, e.g. computers, bicycles
  • Others have integral architecture, e.g. motorcycles
    • Need teams to solve simultaneous equations
    • Good retention of employees
    • Illusion that Japan is good at high-tech products, much moved to China

Integral architecture:  many-to-many mapping between function and structure

Open architecture

Three types of architectures:  closed-integral, closed-modular, open-modular

  • Closed integral:  Japanese automobiles
  • Closed modular:  American trucks are good at this, body on frame
  • Chinese products:  quasi-open modular architecture, on Chinese local markets
    • Seldom see this in India motorcycles, but do see this in China, where have mix and match of copied types

Japanese cars, 90% are product-specific, compared to computers that are only 50%

Two-staged design process, linked by trial-and-error coordination

  • Japanese are good with this, due to long-term employment

Design-based comparative advantage

  • Economists ignore where design is done, focusing on where manufacturing is done

Predictions on architecture-based compariative advantage (by country)

  • Integral axis and modular axis:
  • Japan most integral
  • China and Korea most modular

e.g. steel trade pattern, economists can't explain

  • Cars use different types of steel in different parts of cars
  • Japan exports outer panels, whereas inner panels are Korean

Implication to Japanese Industrial Policy

  • Protectionism tries to protect slowest runnings
  • Want to chang to front-runner-oriented industrial policies
  • Slowest runners need to be handled by social policies, not industrial policies

Announcements

2007/08/06 13:45 Teruyasu Murakami, "The Ubiquitous Network and Challenges to the Information System", ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/06 13:45 Teruyasu Murakami,  "The Ubiquitous Network and Challenges to the Information System", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Jim Kijima

Teruyasu Murakami, Chief Counselor, Nomura Research Institute, Tokyo, Japan

[Teruyasu Murakami]

Teruyasu Murakami

The Ubiquitous Network and Challenges to the Information System

Met Boulding when a student, visiting Chicago

Impressed by how humble Bouding was, with students

Ubiquitous:  does the average Japanese student know what this means?

  • 24% knew

Famous as 1988 "ubiquitous computing", by Mark Weiser from Xerox PARC

  • 1998 Nomura Research Institute used "uniquitous network":  network access more important
  • Around 2000, NRI started publishing "ubiquitous network"
  • 2001 Nikkei had conference on ubiquitous society

Major companies started using "ubiquitous" in their organization names

ICT policy development in Japan:  2001 e-Japan strategy recast in 2001 e-Japan Strategy II, focused on ubiquitous networks

  • Defined as always one, everywhere on, whatever on the network

u-Japan Strategy, objective to attain frontrunner targets for 2010

Ubiquitous Network Society (UNS) Strategy Program

  • Universal communications
  • New generation networks
  • Safety and society

Council for Science and Technology revised plan for 2006-2010

IT New Reform Strategy: ubiquitous and universal

Evolution of IT paradigm in Japan

  • 1955, Nomura Security starting using a Univac-120, mainframe
  • 1980s: client-server
  • Just as completed client-server, new paradigm of web computing, terminals attached to Internet
  • Boom period, everything moved to web space, but bursting of IT bubble producing a vacuum
  • Then broadband paradigm: aimed at fixed networks, e.g. ADSL

Ubiquitous network wasn't just wired network, but also wireless, including broadcast (terrestrial digital networks) and transportation (navigation systems) and real (RFID)

Policy in Japan has been subdivided

Everywhere on:

  • Internet, but once we leave the PC, we're not connected
  • NTT Docomo started iMode service, signalled the flowering of new technologies
    • At home
    • Store, stations, hotels, etc.

Always on:

  • 2001, ADSL started in Japan
  • Japan Broadcasting Corportion (NHK) at 2001, PC utilization time averaged 2.41 hours, which is the amount that it's always on

Whatever on:

  • Not only PC to PC, but Person-to-Person, and other equipment, e.g. PDAs as Person-to-Object  e.g. vending machine
  • Object to object is now RFID

u-Korea also widely discussed

  • 8 services: WiBro (wide broadcasting), DMB ...
  • 3 infrastructures:  Broadband Convergence, Ubitiuous Sensor
  • 9 growth engines:  Mobile Telecom / Telematic ...

Became the u-IT 8-3-9 Strategy

China: Gave talk in 2005, then in 2006 they had u-China (no place where it doesn't exist)

Europe: World Summit on the Information Society

United Nations commitment: future target to build ICT network infrastructure

Will information systems be able to adapt to the ubiquitous network system?  3 challenges

  • 1. Numeric explosion, depletion of IP addresses, will have a shift from IPv4 to IPv6
    • This solution ensures people can obtain sufficient IP addresses, but will IT systems survive?
    • Diagram, use of networks by a single person, could attach through 100 terminals or devices
  • 2. Diversity explosion: future information systems, using addresses in different layers
    • Next Generation Network: having at least two layers in the network environment
  • 3. Embedded Software Explosion:  e.g. RFID
    • Real-time nature of activities with no latency
    • Real position requires proximity
    • In real world, scheduling and changes of task timing (not done in Windows today)

Kenneth E. Boulding:  "We make our tools, then they shape us"

2007/08/07 11:00 Panel Discussion: Fusion in Systems Sciences: East and West, Soft and Hard, ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/07 11:00 Panel Discussion:  Fusion in Systems Sciences: East and West, Soft and Hard, ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Panel Discussion: Fusion in Systems Sciences: East and West, Soft and Hard

  • Chair: Tatsuyuki Negoro, Chief Director, Research Institute of Information Technology and Management, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan

Panellists:

  • Jifa Gu, Professor, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, P R China
  • Louis H. Kauffman, Professor, University of Illinois, Chicago, USA
  • David C. Lane, Reader, London School of Economics, London, UK
  • G.A. Swanson, Professor, Tennessee Technological University, Cookeville, TN, USA

[Tatsuyuki Negoro]

Tatasuyuki Negoro

Three questions:

  • Is it fruitful to distinguish hard from soft approaches in systems thinking?
  • How could we accommodate hard, soft and other trends in systems thinking
  • What are common features and critical differences between the western and eastern approaches?

David Lane:  Hard Headed but Soft Hearted

David Lane

I am a system dynamist

  • Systems dynamics and systems sciences aren't as close as they might be
  • Systems sciences has a web of influences

SD comes from server engineering mechanism

  • Peter Checkland has a map of the system science
  • System Dynamics comes from Jay Forrester

SD can add the theory

SD has a reputation as a hard approach, but

  • Importance of mental models
  • Crafting of desirable futures
  • Underlying social theory

Is SD a bluntly realists approach?  No, from the defining ideas

  • Feedback
  • Simulation
  • Mental models

SD models aren't a model of the reality, they're representations of mdental models

Structure influences behaviour

  • Thinking that hypothesized causal factors influence behaviour
  • This is not a prediction, but instead a deduced behaviour
  • It's like SSM:  Checkland describes models as logical machines
  • If the behaviour is unwelcome, then it's used to create new operating models
  • Behaviour influences structure
  • Hope to craft a more desireable theory

Is SD functionalist?  No

  • Burrell Morgan framework:  Checkland positioned SSM as interpretitive
  • Look more deeply in Burrell Morgan
  • Using Jackson, place some parts of SD is subjective, and some is objective
  • Rather than looking at objectivism and subjectivism, social systems are better as layers
  • Layder:  Degrees of depth ontology
  • Think of agency and structure as interacting (draw from Berger & Luckman, Social Construction of Reality)

SD can contribute a formal approach, perhaps to agent-based approaches

Can't say much about east-west

Can contribute towards the goal of service to humanity

Louis Kauffman, Points of View

Louis Kauffman

Distinctions

Mathematical models

  • Can be used to make correlations, and as a testing ground for concepts

Knot logic: linking as mutuality

  • Knot is a patterned integrity, information independent of the substrate that carries it

Self-mutuality and fundamental triplicity

  • Trefoil is a stable self-mutuality in three loops about itself

G.A. Swanson, The Domain of the Inquiry of Systems Science

G. A. Swanson
Concern from the founders of the ISSS that natural and biological sciences had advanced, that social scientists should work on general theories

  • Thus, ISSS was founded not as philosophical, but instead scientific
  • Under AAAS, it was put into the philosophy and history section

2x2 matrix:  Duality between inexact/exact and linguistic/mathematic

  • Endeavours tend to be around the exact, but then structure a new ambiguity around what we learn
  • Ambiguity is around the investment

Margaret Mead:  The language of humanities, domains of interest is linguistic

  • Humans invented language to discover the natural world and each other

In transitions between types of knowledge

Diagonal line:  that's where systems science is (i.e. linguistic-mathematic to mathematic-linguistic)

  • All things that we view in science can be viewed as systems, interacting

Looking at relationships forces us to higher levels of consciousness

At the intersection of the lines, there's an infinity of understanding

  • It's an epistemology, and from that comes not only philosophy but science

Gu JiFa:  Systems Methodologies from Hard to Soft, from West to East

Background in computing mathematics, moved to operations research

  • Then movements to systems engineering, systems dynamics
  • These are all hard systems methodologies

1980:  Found some problems in China where couldn't use the hard systems methodologies

  • Found Checkland useful

1994, moved to Hull University

  • Discussed with Zhu, things missing

1990, Sawaragi, Qian and Gu distinguished west and east

Diagram:  original systems thoughts in China AD1100; original western thoughts AD600

Some eastern approaches

Shinayakana Systems Approach

  • 1987
  • I3:  interactive, intelligent, interdisciplinary
  • H3

Metasynthetic system approach

  • Qian 1990
  • Open complex giant systems problems

Expert opinions .... have to deal with those

Gu & Zhu 1994, Wuli-Shili-Renli

  • Wuli: Objective world
  • Shili: Subjective world
  • Renli: Intersubjective world

Linstone comparison with TOP

  • Technical
  • Organizational
  • Personal

Yolles comparison

Spiral Propulsion Approach

i-system, Nakamori 2000

  • Extends i3 to i5:  pentagram system

Tatsuyuki Negoro: Panel

Definitions of hard and soft

Simple definition

Checkland definition

  • The world as system vs. the process of inquiry as systemic

David Lane:

  • The world is as it is, versus the world as a social construct
  • Comment from Forrester, SD models representing the reality of the world -- this is meaningless
  • Hard as meaning formal language is used, versus qualitative language, which can be dissolved:  conceptual models
  • Use hard/soft definitions, because I see other people using it

Louis Kauffman:

  • Using hard and soft in a multiplicity of meanings
  • Parts that resist and those that don't
  • Experience of facts, but language as soft

G.A. Swanson:

  • Should reject hard/soft, speak instead of complexity

Jifa Gu:

  • Social problems, deal with soft
  • Use of models, exact with mathematic; but if don't know then use language
  • Systemic versus systematic:  hard is better with systematic, soft is better with systemic

Louis Kauffman:

  • Hard always looking like the end result, soft often looks like playing before production
  • There's the domain of imagination that is neither soft no hard

David Lane:

  • Models as something that people can discuss
  • Similar in decision sciences
  • Model will run again and again, but won't come up with anything creative

Questions from the audience

Hard and soft are both view of the same thing:  engineers are more concerned with the hard part; people care; should integrate, holism.

Hard, 3 problems: flexible? precision or digitalization (yes/no)?  how much detail (at end)?  Can we live with the soft?

  • G.A. Swanson:  Good point, problem of chaotic systems when humans are the agents/actors.  Creativitiy directly in the system.
  • Don't like the hard/soft distinction, because always hardening and softening, or else will lose the system.

Hard and soft as positioning

Presenting things as objective:  near-Hegelianism, Fukuyama, The End of History?

Debate of hard and soft is useful, but do we believe that we can sort this out by talking?

  • Lou Kauffman:  talking is useful

Organizations have hard and soft processes, it's important to know which, e.g. airlines hard product, vs. schools soft.  Culture.

G.A. Swanson:  integrative aspects, culture east-west.

Close:  no conclusion, which is a positive statement

2007/08/07 13:45 Hiroshi Deguchi, "Systems Sciences Toward the New Liberal Arts for the Global Society of 21st Century"

2007/08/07 13:45 Hiroshi Deguchi, "Systems Sciences Toward the New Liberal Arts for the Global Society of 21st Century", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Hiroshi Deguchi, Leader of 21 Century COE Program ABSSS, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Tokyo, Japan

[Deguchi]

Hiroshi Deguchi

Problems of systems science

  • Little influence for connecting science and humanities

Mission of SGSR:  change isomorphy to commensurability

System concepts popular, e.g. feedback

  • But little linkage to CAS or SSME

Haven't established a philosophy of science for artificial and social semantics

Gap between social and general systems theory

  • Luhmann is based on macro communication processes

Foundation of epistemology

  • Kripke:  causal chain/ but too naive
  • Quine

Liberal arts

  • Contrast to professional, vocation or technical curriculum
  • Includes literature, language, philosophy, math and science

Classical liberal arts of the Oriental world

  • Mo-tzu (490-403 BC)
  • Philosophy partially from architectural concepts
  • School came from lower classes
  • Ethics as sympathy (sometimes wrongly translated to universal love)
  • Peace keep against attacks of war.
  • Activities included:  logic, rhetoric, optics, ethics, peace keeping and political practice (no mucis)

First social simulation by Mo-Tzu B.C. 400

Liberal arts as free from what?  

  • Mission traditionally to serve God and man, and to become free from all others except God in the context of pre-modern society

What are the life world platforms of the 21st century?

We are living partially embedded and partially disembedded society

  • Semantic differentiation = cross cultural platform

So, propose:  new liberty under the cross-cultural, trans-state and trans-civilization context

Draw:  intellectual map

  • New liberal arts should support the ability of drawing the intellectual map of knowledge

Approach

  • 2x2:  participatory intersubjective; vs. rational and normative
  • 2x2:  market vs. non-market; public vs. private

Commensurability gap:

  • One:  gap betwen social systems theory and other systems theory
    • e.g. Luhmann gave different meaning to "system boundary"
  • Other: gap between emergent CAS and ABM

Macro-micro link

Gaps are becoming more serious

  • Need the ways of the inter-subjective

To overcome the commensurability problem ...

Ten new liberal arts domains

  • 1. Mathematical thoery of systems modeling that includes mathematical aspects of systemic properties
  • 2. Conflict resolution and accommodation
  • 3. System modeling and practices of participatory approach to construct the shared knowledge inside organizations or societies
  • 4. Extension of rational decision-making, including evolutionary and learning aspects of decision-making
  • 5. Anticipatory systems theory and the internal model
  • 6. Integration of functional and bottom-up approach
  • 7. Social semantics and communication theory for inter-subjective construction of shared understanding
  • 8. Systems sciences for cultural contexts, services analysis and value creation: focused on SSME
  • 9. Agent-based social simulation:  systems dynamics provides functional stock and flow points of view, need to extend from bottom-up approach.
    • Social architecture design by SOARS, not for prediction, but for comunication, sharing of internal model and option evaluation
  • 10. Systems philosophy and methodology under communication with traditional philosophy of sciences

[Questions]

Holistic approach?

  • Liberal arts is not working well at universities

Interdisciplinary approach?

  • An individual who can speak multiple languages, not bringing together disciplinary people as a group

2007/08/08 11:00 Debora Hammond, "Steps Towards a Sustainable Future", ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/08 11:00 Debora Hammond, "Steps Towards a Sustainable Future", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Debora Hammond, Professor, Sonoma State University

Debora Hammond

Coming from the U.S. to Japan, Japanese are advanced in sustainability

Relevance to the conference theme:  an integrated science

Defining sustainability, Bruntland Commission (1987)

  • Meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs
  • Also other species
  • Should consider impact on the next seven generations, compared with discounting the future

Two root concepts

  • Sustain:  keep in existence without diminishing
  • Develop:  to improve, make better
  • Sustainable development sometimes seen as an oxymoron
  • What are we sustaining, and what are we developing?
  • Idea problematic, some use the term "regenerative", because sustainable is sometime used for sustaining economic growth on the current model

Further definitions:  US EPA Office of Sustainable Ecosystems and Communities

  • Not sustained growth
  • Not enrivonrment movement, but community movement
  • Humans are part of the ecosystem
  • www.epa.gov/ecocommunity

Sustainable community

  • Looking at the world from a new perspective
  • Encouraging a new way of thinking, change our behaviour
  • New habits

Triple bottom line:

  • Traditional models only economic
  • Economy, plus ecology
    • Boulding, as a founder of economic ecology
    • Dick Norgaard a student of Boulding, speaks of methodological pluralism
    • Conflicts between economy and ecology
  • Social equity, as the third dimension.

Improving the quality of live

  • Elimination of poverty
  • Consideration of resource base
  • Development beyond economic to include social and cultural
  • Generally think about environment issues and social issues as separate, as environment was from the middle class, not considering the poor.

Three different types of capital:

  • Financial and built capital:  goods, buildings, information resources ...
  • Natural capital: air quality, water, soil, ...
  • Social capital:  education, skills and health

Integration possible only with versatility (John Adams, ISSS 2006)

  • Economic worldview: egocentric, machine
  • Ecological worldview: ecocentric, organism
  • Societal worldview: homocentric, community

Models:  one of originals from Jim Miller

  • 20 subsystems
  • Processing matter / energy and information
  • Key subsystem: the decider

Boulding, from the Organizational Revolution

  • Receptor of information
  • Transmitter of information
  • Interpreter
  • Transmitter of orders
  • Effector 
  • Transmitter of effect

Economic worldview:  the inherent logic of money

  • So much of decision-making function is built into financial institutions, mediating, e.g. different currencies
  • Money is debt-based and interest-bearing, with an inherent incentive towards groth
  • This isn't value neutral

Hawkens:  The Global Casino

  • A system of money, looking for more ways to make more of itself
  • Profits before people
  • Maximizing shareholder return
  • Distorted logic:  when unemployment goes down, stock market goes down
  • Divides rich and poor
  • Pressure to exploit natural resources

One aspect of rethinking the future is rethinking money and finance

  • Bernard Lietaer:  The Future of Money, Of Human Wealth
  • e.g. money like water that runs off the ground, rather than circulating
  • Want to find ways to keep wealth circulating within a community
  • Strengthening local economics:  http://livingeconomies.org
  • Principles:  Equator and Collevecchio Principles
  • Rainforest Action Network trying to stop logging, at it happened elsewhere, discovered private banks were funding more than public banks
  • Cautionary, put pressure on, for Equator principles, which aren't as strong as the Collevecchio Principle
  • Jean Maier:  suggesting an currency sustainability standard, ranking currency exchange, determining value on the international market e.g. participation in weapons of mass destruction

Edward Abbey:  Growth ... cancer cell

Growth and development

  • Inherently wasteful
  • As moving towards a service economy, potential to change
  • Maximizing throughput (Boulding)
  • Exploits labour

Kenneth Boulding poem on Maturity

  • Shift from material abundance to quality of life

Economic feedback mechanisms

  • GNP/GDP: measure of wealth
  • Stock market
  • Per capital income

Hazel Henderson, Paradigms of Progress:  GNP is like running 747 on one gauge

A lot of things count that are inaccurate

  • All money that passes through marketplace
  • Fails to take unpaid labour into account
  • Doesn't take into account family breakdown

Redefining progress, http://rprogress.org as Genuine Progress Indicator

  • Since 1980s, GPI is flat
  • Marilyn Waring:  "If Women Counted", or Counting for Nothing
  • Wreck of Valdez contributed to work
  • Debit column

Oikonomia:  Management of household to increase its value to all members

  • Chrematistics:  Political economy to maximize short term value

Ecological worldview

  • Millenium Ecosystem Assessment

Enviromental crisis

Societal worldview

  • Human rights, security, quality of life, inclusiveness

Alexander and Kathia Laszlo, beyond the three E's

  • Introduced human development as a fourth dimension
  • Equity can be imposed from the top down, but human development requires people to take some responsibility on their own

Norgaard and Lele:  Sustainability and the Scientist's Burden

  • Collaborative

Applied systems thinking is inherently democratic

  • Need development of appropriate methodologies
  • Applying principles of self-organization for emergent order

Sustainable Enterprise Conference:  envision a sustainable community in the North Bay

  • Interdependence
  • Free and fair trade, balancing self-sufficiency with international trade
  • Increasing local investment opportunities
  • Tax destructive, not productive activities
  • Ecological: minimize fossil fuel use
  • Zero waste
  • Enhance local agriculture:  farming becoming one of the highest paid jobs
  • Water as a precious gift, living within the annual budget
  • Reduction in work week, slower pace of life, healthier

Obstacles to vision

  • Privatized profit and social costs
  • Media promoting non-sustainable lifestyle

Developing sustainability indicators

  • How to measure quality of life
  • Good jobs that support basic needs
  • Strength of local economy
  • e.g. ecological footprint, greenhouse gas emissions, Sustainable Seattle

Jonathon Porritt:  Core values

Donella Meadows: Scarcest resource is willingness to listen to each other

Albert Einstein:  Can not resolve any complex problem from the same manner of thinking

2007/08/08 11:45 Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, "Building Back Aceh Better through Reconstruction and Reintegration"

2007/08/08 11:45 Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, "Building Back Aceh Better through Reconstruction and Reintegration: A Joint Peacekeeping Effort", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Kuntoro Mangkusubroto, Director, Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Executing Agency for Aceh and Nias (BRR), Banda Aceh, Indonesia

Kuntoro Mangkusubroto

Speaking about the reconstruction process in the largest natural disaster over the last 200 years: tsunami

  • History of conflict in Aceh
  • Reconstruction and reintegration, now at an early stage, but progress is encouraging

First, will speak to reconstruction, then about reintegration in coexisting, finally have the two integrated together

Aceh at northwestern part of Indonesia

  • Coastal area 800 km
  • Area in conflict for 30 years
  • One of the poorest regions in Asia
  • Corruption worst than others in Indonesia
  • Western coast area, 3 km beyond coastline were destroyed by tsunami

Damage from tsunami:  

  • 120,000 houses, will be rebuilt by next year
  • 2500 teachers:  how to replace this, takes years, requires a fast program to upgrade, but since it's a poor area, no one wants to go there

December 26, 2004, then help came from around the world:  military forces from 35 countries

  • No diseases, no starvation
  • Cleaning only took one month, cleaning of debris

BRR was established as a single agency by the government, unprecedented, usually it would be a ministry or some agencies

  • 3 functions:
    • Restore livelihoods
    • Facilitate all players (e.g. 500 NGOs)
    • Coordinate and implement government projects

BRR coordinates  more then 12.500 projects, and implements 5000 projects

  • Scale of work $8.5 billion USD pledge, commitment of $6.1 billion already, compared to 30% average
  • Start from zero, hire up to 600 people within a month, then liquidate
  • New laws and regulation, when all housing documents, certificates washed away
  • Supporting local government, to continue reconstruction
  • Help of international community, but 500 NGOs each with own mandates, e.g. one to build houses, another for water sanitation

Trust of international community high

  • Needed $1.3 billion USD to build back better

Finish by 2009

  • Progress

Initiatives:

  • Fast track approval
  • Integrated team:  tax exemptions, visa/work permits
  • BRR trust fund mechanisms
  • Gender policy: to open and develop a society, women as spearhead for development, land titles in two names in husband and wife

Village policy:  each person wants ownership of their future

Accountability and integrity:

  • BRR integrity pact
  • Anti-corruption unit (SAK)
  • Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK)

 

Lessons:

  • Single agency with full authority, e.g. where to get things done
  • Agency with an authority to coordinate donor programs, and means to implement
  • State regulations to grant authority, e.g. tendering process too slow
  • Agency as flexible and responsive
  • Parallel processes, e.g. building road with house, if wait for road, it will be 6 months
  • Minimize bureaucracy, delegating authority
  • Minimize flag waving
  • Identify and promote breakthrough initiatives as standard
  • Developing local capacity

30 years of conflict:

  • Centralism and economic exploitation
  • Local aspiration of independence
  • Military operations
  • Local corruption
  • Not ideology or religion, may be easier than other communities

Prior efforts for peace

  • 2000: humanitarian pause
  • 2001 Cessation of Hostilities Agreement
  • All failed
  • Helsinki MoU

Resolved the root issue:  the political end state of Aceh

  • Trust-based relationship
  • Commitment from the leader

Helsinki MoU

  • Followed by implementation of law
  • Granted of amnesty
  • Establishment of Aceh Monitoring Mission to resolve disputes
  • Decommissioning of armies, demobilization of troops

Moral:  if you want to do something, do it fast

  • Humanitarians only last 6 months, then they want to make profits

Law on Governing Aceh has 4 foundations

Democratically elected government

  • Have to support capacity

Separate agency BRA, Aceh Reintegration Agency

Only 2 years after MoU has been signed, still have uncertainties

2007/08/08 13:45 Gerald Midgley, "Towards A New Framework for Evaluating Systemic and Participative Methods", ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/08 13:45 Gerald Midgley, "Towards A New Framework for Evaluating Systemic and Participative Methods", ISSS 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Gerald Midgley, Senior Science Leader, Institute of Environmental Science and Research (ESR), New Zealand

Gerald Midgely

Acknowledgements

Have been developing an evaluation framework in a project:  Sustainable Development: The Human Development

  • Resource use:  water management, human waste
  • Participative systems methods
  • Will broaden later

Why evaluate systems approaches?

  • Do they add value?
  • Paradigm conflict: quantitative versus action research in local context
  • Propose a new evaluation framework
  • Have developed a questionnaire
  • Limitations of framework and questionnaire
  • Invitation to collaborate in a new international research program

Why evaluate methods?

  • Reflexive practice, need to learn, and evaluations can help
  • Renewed interest in systems thinking by policy makers, more opportunities that can take
  • Help decision-makers understand which are systemic methods

Evidence base:

  • Review in systems and participative methods
  • Vast majority just report practitioners reflections
  • Can be unreliable
  • Worked with Skinner at Hull, reviewing the work of an action researcher, to see if others who participated to see if they thought he had done a good job
    • No relationship between what he thought he did, and others said not
    • Practitioner reflections are unreliable
  • Others develop questionnaires, but there's an issue in designing questionnaires of paradigm blindness, which tells them what a successful intervention might be, but then don't see others
  • Only a small minority triangulate

Another obstacle, beside quality of the evidence base, but paradigm conflict

  • Roe:  Advocating universal approaches (quantitative) versus local approaches (action research)

Universal assume

  • Criteria of relevance can be defined
  • Common metrics can be defined
  • Can compare across multiple case studies

Local evaluations:

  • Accounts for emergent issues
  • Quantative can be useful, but qualitative is critical
  • Local context can't be eliminated
  • Universal knowledge about methods is unattainable, but can still learn

Purposes pursued:

  • Universal assumes to compare methods to pursue similar things and determine which best
  • Local is about learning in a single intervention or a series of interventions

Need a framework that integrates both of these purposes

  • Need to be support reflection on single case studies
  • Yields data useful for both local evaluations and comparisons between methods
    • Sometimes local stakeholder don't want extra question

Framework:

  • Context
  • Purposes of the people involved
  • Methods
  • What can reasonably be said about the methods, given context and purpose
  • Researcher becomes part of the framework, in context, purpose and methods

Framework can be used flexibly, e.g. in a Ph.D. project, or in a single day workshop

Context:

  • No agreeement on what needs to be looked at, since several authors with several contexts
  • Step up a level, to ask ...
  • Boundaries and value judgements, processes of marginalization.
  • Stakeholder perspectives
  • Organizational, institutional, socio-economic and ecological systems
  • Feedback processes and networks

Context: Practitioner Identity

  • e.g. intervention with Mali community, looking at clean drinking water in a community house
  • Firstly, non-Mali
  • Secondly, crown institute, with a background
  • Not only questions that are challenged, but also the researcher

Purposes:

  • Fit between methods and purposes
  • Look for: articulated purposes, hidden agendas, conflicting purposes, mismatches

Purposes: Practitioner Purposes

  • Good fit?  Check with other people
  • Project to help design services for homeless children, with street workers about the project
  • Street workers were suspicious that were just collecting data, took over a year for them to realize that interested in social good

Methods:  Process and Outcome Criteria

  • Process: exploration sufficiently systemic?
  • Did it facilitate effective participation?
  • Outcomes: plans / actions / changes
  • Outcomes, in relation to people's purposes
  • Short-term and long-term outcomes
  • Unanticipated outcomes

Methods: Practitioner's Skills and Preferences

  • e.g. SSM interpreted from very flexible/responsive, through to linear execution

Methods: Other aspects

  • Theoretical assumptions into the method
  • Claus Fass:  Cost-benefit analysis in national parks, assigned utilitarian approach, which marginalized environmentalists interested in wilderness for its own stake
  • Cultural norms
  • Importing a method from one culture to another can cause difficulties

An evaluation questionnaire:

  • Captures data on process and short-term outcomes
  • Filled in by participants immediately following the workshop
  • Must be used immediately after the workshop
  • Contains 
    • Usefulness (5 point scale)
    • Systemic and participative methods (15 questions, 5 point scale)
    • Drawbacks and potential negative side effects (13 questions, 5 point scale)
    • Cultural viewpoint, open ended questions
    • Basic demographics

Found:

  • Majority of people asked only a few criteria that all participative and systemic methods aspire to do well on, but same set
  • Would like to set up for complementarity between methods, rather than one methods is better than another

Produced a questionnaire

  • Most test for validity and reliability, but also tested for usability
  • Validity is usually using a second test
  • Reliability difficult, because can't come back next day, but usability means that people will fill it out/

Used on test cases

Strengths:  nuanced, yet parsimonious

Limitation:  practitioner can interpret events defensively

Limitations:

  • Could work against pluralistic methods, as fewer to compare against
    • Can still use qualitative comparisons
  • Will be testing on validity and reliability on a future projectd
  • If new methods, new attributes won't be measured by the existing instrument
  • Doesn't evaluation non-participative approaches

Invitation for international collaboration

2007/08/08 18:35 Barfour Adjei-Barwuah, "Strengthening Strategic Alliances ... Science, Technology and Engineering Cooperation"

2007/08/08 18:35 Barfour Adjei-Barwuah, "Strengthening Strategic Alliances through Science, Technology and Engineering Cooperation: implementing the Africa's Science and Technology Plan of Action", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Barfour Adjei-Barwuah, Ghanian Ambassador to Japan

Barfour Adjei-Barwuah

Standing in for the African Union, an awesome responsibility

Moving to global economy

  • Also intellectual property rights, nation states, guarding national borders
  • Individual has to propel international technology

Have to balance propensity to network, while still have maintaining nation states

Linkage between Europe and Asia

  • Africa is looking to tap into this
  • Difficult because Africa is 53 different countries, different environments, 50 different languages
  • A single way forward is daunting
  • If we don't do this, we will be left behind
  • We have been a developing country for 30 years, and stagnation could sustain
  • Have to catch up

Catching up of African Union, thorugh New Parntership for Africa's Development (NEPAD)

  • A consolidated science and technology plan of action
  • Capacity building of human capital
  • Need technological innovation
  • Knowledge production between industry and universities
  • Integration of the world economy, we have to accept, even if we don't like it

Common vision --> objectives <-- principles --> criteria

  • Sparse population, mostly poor
  • Have energy problems:  blip affects country, plus two other countries who receive exports
    • Ghana has oil, but the management of that is a problem
  • Also water issues:  impacts health, quality of life
  • Need to forge relationships between universities, research and development, through industrial parks where they can apply the money

Within the union, need to create new policy conditions

Trying to get to a relationship / synergy between what we can do as individuals, as users, as a continent

  • Partnerships, at a continental level, have problems with language: English, Arabic, French, Italian
  • Need to have an attractive environment
  • When independence was started in Ghana duirng the cold war, depends on how perceived by the big powers
  • Seem to be going back to the 1950s, in political influences

More than half of population is under age 18

  • Projections need to be at least 50 years, because individuals are living longer
  • Job opportunities will be related to science
  • Human resources, welfare, quality of work life all related to jobs

Implementing the technological plan, happens at the inter-regional level, and with international cooperation

Inter-regional networks

  • Institutional arrangements will always be a challenge
  • Overall governance
  • Bring in Africa Ministerial Council S&T
  • Steering committee to manage
  • AU commission's responsibilities

International Cooperation

  • NEPAD needs to be accredited
  • Technical and financial mechanisms, can't fund everything
  • Partnership for implementation: so far, no partnerships of equals
    • Constantly falling behind
  • Spearhead by networks of centers of excellence
  • Want to promote tight relationships between institutions and those elsewhere

Looking at benefit, flows have to be two ways

  • Develop knowledge, expertise
  • In Ghana, have to constitute advantageous materials, need to turn into assets

African union

  • One hat
  • Somewhere along the line, people will recognize that need to be able sit on their front porch and get online

Questions

Handling instability in Africa?

  • Have to heed AU
  • Most of the time, the instability has been promoted from external sources
  • Aside from South Africa, no African countries manufacture arms
  • Definitions are different:  heavy vegetation called jungle, versus calling it woods, makes things difficult
  • In Africa, people don't mind being called Africans; compared to Europeans

Civil society role?

  • Civil society in advanced countries could get governments to look at the new Africa, and find ways to support it
  • Science and technology drives all of us, and that's what we're currently short of
  • At some time, civil society will make the argument that $15B to buy is not as good as $15B to build something

2007/08/09 08:05 Systems Applications in Business and Industry, Session 1, ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/09 08:05 Systems Applications in Business and Industry, Session 1, ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Chaired by David Ing

Context as posted in the pre-conference description.

Pam Buckle

Self-organization as a productive and reductive dynamics

Interviews:  most data was on counterproduct

  • Interest wasn't in intervention, but had data on this
  • Presenting data from dissertation research
  • When you see counterproductive, what do you do?

Four options, depending on how aggressive or passive, and how much explaining or not

(1) Watchful waiting

  • When not 100% sure, it's worth waiting
  • Maybe think systems is too entrenched
  • Sometimes person isn't comfortable in role to intervene

(2) Unexplained action:  intervene in the pattern, but don't explain why you're intervening

  • Helping profession usually does this, e.g. doctors don't tell you, psychiatrists don't tell you

(3) Create an information catastrophe

  • Disclosing people what is the pattern that you see going on
  • Name it
  • Explosive and powerful
  • Self-organizing pattern is usually unconscious
  • Shift from unconscious to conscious
  • Difference between espoused and in-use

(4) Explained action

  • Name, and create dialogue

Have systemic factors

  • Intervention doesn't mean can control
  • Intervention needs to work against that

Psychological factors

Organizational resistance

  • Shoot the messenger

Intervener resistance

  • Harming the system, not harming self

[Discussion]

Same dynamics in Al Anon

Examples of self-organizing

Case: woman hired by municipal government group to do management consulting, teamwork

  • Local police, government officials
  • First meeting:  if had bazookas, would have been killing each other
  • She would have preferred to use information catastrophe:  found old book on civil war

Self-organization:  in workplaces, most everything is intentional

  • Self-organization as all of the patterns that are unintended

Way to hell is paved with good intentions?  There are cases where self-organized has improved intentions

People talked about patterns that are counter-productive, view could be right or wrong

Look at processes within self-organization?  Positive and negative processes, including immune, chaotic

Japanese examples:  Fujiya cakes, self-organized change of sell-by dates, first say that it's self-organizing, then they say it's management direction

  • Meat company saying it was selling beef, and put everything in it, saying it was self-organizing

Literature:  self-organizing generally hits union groups

  • Assumption in management literature that it's always someone's intention
  • Frequently, no one intended

Four categories seen as increasing in severity

  • Counterproductive means to organization's goals

In Japan, consequences internally versus externally?

Hisanoti Terasawa

New relationship between consumers and firms

  • Internet
  • Virtual interaction

Agent-based model

  • Virtual interactions by simulation

Example of virtual interaction

  • Observed in web sites

First, consumers offer a new product idea

  • Simple idea becomes an image within the virtual community
  • Then firm may adapt consumers' information
  • Develop product or service enhancement

We discuss only the origin point

Agent-based model

Model has 5 points:

  • 1. Two agents: consumer, vendor
  • 2. Rule of one-to-many communication:  one opinion spreads
  • 3. Rule that consumers participates in two or more communitys
  • 4. Consumer creates the new product ideas
  • 5. Firm agent is observed by consumer community, firm can't comment

Observed properties of interaction

  • Different effects from community via weblog
  • Active members
  • Voluntary interactions can appear in the weblog

Ways the firm may get the information by Japanese search engines, based on number of links to the site

  • Ranks based on consumer interest
  • Keywords

New search engine may be able to access customer inter

Discussion

Proprietariness, open/closed

Demand chain versus supply chain

Agent-based model

Yong Pan

Cyber Lemons

Akerlof: assymmetric information

Cyber-lemons:  in the Internet market

Fortune magazine:  people use the Internet to search for cars, but don't buy there

In China, many issues of cyberlemons

Why do cyber-lemons happen in the Internet market?  Four reasons:

  • Consumer nature of transaction, not face-to-face
  • Unclear identity online for consumer
  • Subjective variation on quality online:  difficult to diffuse reputation
  • Influence of information paradox: quality is clear only after use

Mathematical model

Conclusion:

  • Need a better coordinator of market
  • Law enforcement
  • Third party quality assuranace

2007/08/09 10:00 Michael C. Jackson, "Critical Systems Thinking and its Contributions to 21st Century Management Practice"

2007/08/09 10:00 Michael C. Jackson, "Critical Systems Thinking and its Contributions to 21st Century Management Practice", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Mike C. Jackson, Dean, The Business School, University of Hull, UK

Michael C. Jackson

Troubling:  ISSS younger than I am

  • Need to regard the society as young, and we still have a lot to learn

Introduction / agenda

  • Case studies bringing together east and west, and also hard and soft
  • It's valuable to have a distinction between hard and soft, but also

Grid:  development of appplied systems thinking, keeps changing

    Increasing divergence of values -->
    Unitary Pluralist Coercive
Increasing complexity
|
v
Simple      
Complex      

Stafford Beer and Ralph Stacey, focused on complexity

  • Now trying to deal with softer approaches, e.g. Angela Espinosa

Churchman / Ackoff  / Checkland dealing with diveristy of thinking

Ulrich, dealing with disadvantage in systems, and who's been excluded

Also having to deal with postmodernism

How to handle for best effect

Explanation in systemic terms of metaphors

  • Early, machine metaphor
  • Moving to living systems theory and socio-technical, get organismic and brain aspects
  • Midgely: more emancipatory effects
  • Wide range of metaphors, what if we look through brain or culture or political systems?

Paradigms:

  • Functionalist
  • Interpretative
  • Emancipatory
  • Postmodern

Critical systems thinking:  take advantage of rich vein of systems thought, and enhance the systems domain

  • Holistic, dealing with whole systems, as critical
    • Not enough to be holistic, have to sweep in multiple perceptions
  • Critique, in 3 forms:  Across system types, and dealing with emergence at hierarchical systems (Boulding)
    • Can use hierarchy to discuss system (Boulding)
    • Boundary judgements (Churchman, Ulrich, Midgely):  are we involving community?
    • Social scientific: what lens are you using?  Machine lens, organismic lens, culture or political, functionalist or interpretive or postmodern?

CST seeks to be comprehensive and pluralist at the same time

  • Multi-theoretical, multi-methodological, and multi-method
  • Improvement: in efficiency, efficacy, effectiveness, elegance, empowerment, emanicipation, exception, emotion

Case of knowledge management, with CST

  • Work with JAIST COE
  • Knowledge management, and how it can be improved
  • Nonaka and Takeuchi:  KM in west is too much concerned with explicit knowledge
    • Argue that this is because it's based on the machine organization, hierarchical, division of labour, as information processing machines
    • Criticize for this
  • What metaphor do Nonaka and Takeuchi take into account?
    • Organization as an organization, so they're concerned with tacit, as how an organization hangs together
    • Concerned with mental models, tacit, for knowledge creation

Ackoff says:  biological model can have short term success when loyalty is seen as value

  • Japan closely associates with biological system
  • But this model of biological system is no long relevant, and would replace with a social system metaphor of purposes at 3 levels
  • Danger is groupthink

Nonaka with later collaborators are much closer to the social systemic model, than organismic

  • Nonaka and Toyama:  dialectic
  • Working with contradiction, through dialectic

Other metaphors are ignored:

  • Zhu argues that Japanese KM depicts cosy companies, and miss hierarchy and power that prevents spread of alternative views
  • They don't understand what you can get out of a coercive system metaphor or (postmodern) carnival metaphor

CST helps:  Nokaka et al criticize western approach, but don't criticize themselves

  • Can look a practice, question the theory

A second case, more practical study:  social housing sector

  • Have had 3 terms of Labour government, that has invested in public services: health, education and housing
  • Concern about whether we're getting value for money
  • One review:  Gershon review 2004, views savings to improve the public sector, using resources better
  • Social housing is big business, wanted 835M GBP saving
  • Northern Housing Association had been looking at Lean Systems Thinking, from Vanguard, John Seddon, leading to savings
  • Government wanted to look into this, sponsoring projects
    • Tees Valley: maintenance
    • Leeds: renting voids
    • Preston City Council: rent collection
  • Jackson was asked to sit on three committees
  • Evaluated through a CST approach, which gave insight into benefits and problems

Vanguard Lean Systems approach is based on whole systems (customer) perspective, independence of parts, lean production to customer demand, remove muda (waste), use Kaizen (continuous improvement)

  • Vanguard ensures the objective of the system is the objective of the customer:  significant in public sector
  • Tees Valley: repair within time set, and use the internal team -- which has no mention of customer
  • Customer wanted repair done right the first time
  • Waste of 3 kinds:  
    • Around for no apparent reason (e.g. report no one looks at)
    • Information system that needs to be designed out
    • Waste from higher level systems, some okay (e.g. auditing) but other target based (e.g. call request within 10 days, can't order 14 days ahead)
  • Push decision-making to the lowest level, handling demand
  • Results remarkable
    • 46 days down to 4 days, mostly by giving repairers more discretion
    • 240 empty properties, only 118 after study
    • Review of tenants signing up, of 360 cases, only 18% were in debt after change, 43% were in debt before in change
    • All had 6-figure savings

What about those disadvantaged, e.g. Eastern Europeans?

Some internal issues from local offices

  • Vanguard doesn't handle pluralist well
  • It handles some complexity, but not the way VSM does

Conclude: In looking at east and west, see both

  • Lots to gain from mechanistic and organismic
  • Vanguard was mechanistic, but okay with lots of reflection
  • Organismic model takes us a long way
  • This tension comes from the beginning of General Systems Theory
    • A strand from GST about commonality
    • Also Boulding, about getting the right models
    • Boulding: Mechanistic and organismic are okay, but don't capture the emergence direction
  • This is where distinction between hard and soft

CST can help bridge

2007/08/09 10:50 Soho Machida, "New Paradigms of Civilization in the 21st Century", ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/09 10:50 Soho Machida, "New Paradigms of Civilization in the 21st Century", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Soho Machida, Professor, Hiroshima University, Japan

Soho Machida

Graduate school of integrated arts and science

Monk, has spent 20 years in Zen Buddhism

Former Zen monk

  • Spent 20 years in monastery in Kyoto
  • Degree in Christian theology

Modern civilization like a pyramid

  • Work on building higher pyramids
  • Modern civilization working on glory of individual to be closer to God / Creator
  • May be personal glory
  • Concern about missing pyramid underground:  unconsciousness, non-individuality, traditionally emphasized by Japanese
  • Judo, Kendo, the way
  • Aim at infinity, or emptiness, nothingness

Subconscious passion to build higher things

  • Empire State Building, Stalinist buildings

Crisis of modern civilizaiton

  • Destruction of nature
  • Tower of Babel, collapse may be imminent
  • 9/11 is the symbol of the Tower of Babel, and we've already witnessed the decline of civilization

At the top of the pyramid, we used to worship god

  • God was abducted by ego
  • From Descartes, Cogito ergo sum
  • Nietzsche: god is dead

Illness of modern civilization

  • E. Eriksen:  up to age 3, need to develop basic trust, but today, families have collapsed, and we can't establish confidence in ourselves, resulting in poor relationships with others
  • Especially males in 50s, good income, happy families, but we are really adult children, and haven't resolved internal crisis
  • Identity crisis happens in adolescence, but could be prolonged too long
  • Deprivation
  • In Japan, lots of suicide, people jumping onto subway tracks are a daily incident
  • Japan is one of most peaceful, prosperous countries, yet we feel vacant inside
  • We carry fear without reason
    • In the west, go to shrink, but in Japan, they don't, and they just carry fears

Unstability:  June Quarterneity

  • Through psychotherapy, we integrate to oneself
  • He criticized Christianity to only look at holy trinity of God, Jesus and Holy Ghost
  • We have to integrate Satan, to make God complete
  • Satan represents unconsciousness
  • We all carry Satanic tendencies in our unconsciousness
  • We need to integrate Satan within

Satan in modern society, not medieval time

  • We hardly discuss Satan, except George Bush
  • Satan could mean different religions, different ethnicities, foreight cultures, other ideologies as the Axis of Evils
  • Logic of exclusiveness

God as completion, but not perfection

  • Evil is not to be excluded, but to be transformed
  • Buddhist Mandala:  guardian spirits can be understood as evil elements
  • No peace is established within
  • We have to integrate unfamiliar elements:  they look like enemies, but they exists within, and we project our own shadows on others
  • We project our hidden personality on other individuals

Japanese has polytheistic cosmology:  Buddhist and Shintoism, both simultaneously

  • Shinto:  animism, living things, all phenomenon are scared
  • 8 million goods
  • All things are sacred
  • Mount Fuji is sacred mountain, but have others
  • Never workshop mountain as coming down from God, mountain itself is God
  • Japanese have a hard time visualizing abstract god
  • Mountains are seen as coiled snakes
  • In early Japan, mountain workship and snake workship overlapped
  • 7500 year old cypress, all objects of workship, trees as living goods
  • Waterfall: worship of sexual organs, since it's source of fertility

Mutual understanding between religions, but first need to understand differences

  • God as judgemental and paternalistic suggests order
    • In Japanese, there are many gods, and they have anger and jealousy, they quarrel
    • Almost comical stories
  • Great earth mother, as maternal principles, representes fertility
    • Truth is a new word in Japanese, since more based in vitality

Japan boasts cutting edge technology, but have a long traditions

  • Clay pot:  flaming edges, are powerful, were created by females and males were not allowed to participate
  • Female leaders in Japan before 13th century
  • Sword smiths, sword weren't just weapons, they were in temples as the body of God, since sword smiths invested all of their essence
  • Long history of craftsmenship, inherited even in small companies, experiencing a unity of mind and matter
  • Kitaro Nishida calls this active intuition, see things by becoming things

Experiencing dichotomy of mind and body

  • Mind not here
  • Many of us enjoy wonderful food, but the joy of life is separated
  • Feeling of life only when mind and body are together
  • In Tokyo, people living such a busy life, residents are so stressed
  • Have to put the mind and body together, as craftsman
  • People engaged in martial arts, tea ceremony, all experience here and now

We view dichotomies in 20th century

  • Sacred vs. profane
  • Man vs. nature

But we need to improve personal lives

  • Japan used to be poor, and people took good care of things they had
  • Now, mass production, we buy too many things and waste them
  • We have to return to pay respect to the things we own
  • In Japan, renew cars every 3 years, although they last 10 to 20 years:  a waste of natural resources

Non-theistic cosmology, not atheism:  Kegon Philosophy of Buddhism, first version introduced by Buddha himself

  • Four ways of perception
    • World of particulars:  reality, belongs to polytheistic cosmology
    • World of principles: metaphysics, belongs to monotheistic cosmology
    • World of interfusion of particulars and principles:  morality
    • World of harmonized particulars, we don't have to go to temple, because God is in everything
  • M. Eckhart (German):  Beyond God as a concept
  • Eckhart wrote things close to masters in Japan

Zen cartoon: monk

  1. Looking for the cow (metaphor for enlightment, or dharma)
  2. Seeing traces of the cow (footsteps, not entity)
  3. Seeing the cow (just the tail, excited)
  4. Catches the cow (dharma, truth, as an actual thing, with tight rope in tension so not to lose the religious view)
  5. Herding the cow (tamed, cow doesn't try to escape, compromise)
  6. Coming home on the cow's back (doesn't try to control the cow, plays flute, cow knows to go home)
  7. Cow is forgotten, leaving the man alone (cow isn't necessary, have to forget the system, if you're attached to the system, you'll have conflict with people who have other systems)
  8. Cow and man both gone out of sight (emptiness, internal war, no attachment)
  9. Return back to the origin, back to the source (see things as they are, not veiled with our own notions)
  10. Entering the city with bliss:  (hermit monk, now fat, enjoying life, enjoying every moment, knowing God is there, doesn't have to talk, people are impressed by his presence, the ultimate goal)

The way to peace:

  • We can't impose our value systems upon others
  • We have to admit that we all share pain, sadness and weakness
    • How glorious doesn't matter, we all experience the pain, sadness and weakness, so we can stand on the same ground
    • At deepest level of humanity
    • We enjoy peace here, but there are so many people killed, starving
  • Then we can forgive ourselves, and forgive others:  compassion, understand the weaknesses we have
  • Coexistence with oneself
  • Then, finally, can coexistence of civilization is more realistic

Questions

Churchman:  the enemies within, and we must embrace them

  • Dalai Lama:  talks about commonality of religions
  • Same consciousness
  • The human world is coming closer to crisis, reaching consensus in spiritual awakening
  • There are lots of wonderful things happening not in the news media

Religious integration: irreconcilable difference, e.g Christianity trinity, a lot of religions won't accept that

  • Advocating non-theistic cosmology
  • We're fighting about concepts
  • God is constructed by humans, a human-made concept
  • Taking students to toilet cleaning, to brushes, no gloves:  cures depression

2007/08/09 13:50 Yoshiteru Nakamori, "Knowledge Pentagram System", ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/09 13:50 Yoshiteru Nakamori, "Knowledge Pentagram System", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Yoshiteru Nakamori, Leader of 21 Century COE Program,  "Technology Creation Based on Knowledge Science," Japan Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (JAIST), Ishikawa, Japan

Yoshiteru Nakamori

Emergence of knowledge sciences (Andrzej P. Wierzbicki)

  • Changing episteme
  • Need an integration of arts and sciences, and Oriental and Occidental episteme
  • Speak of knowledge sciences in plural

Two views:

  • 1. Management of information for knowledge-intensive activities
  • 2. Management of people in knowledge-related processes

Third view:  management of human resources in a knowledge civilization era

School of knowledge science at JAIST

  • JAIST founded in October 1990, first school with graduate but no undergrad school
  • School of Knowledge Science founded by Professor Nonaka (The Knowledge-Creating Company)

Definitions of knowledge

Knowledge science is based on information science plus management science

  • Need systems science
  • In addition, change from redunction to emergence

Nonaka and Takeuchi SECI spiral

  • Tacit knowledge can be split into emotive knowledge and intuitive knowledge

Nonaka, Toyama, Konno:  Ba

Knowledge creation has been a focus in business, but JAIST has a similar interest in academia

School of Knowledge Science:

  • Have been doing knowledge conversion theory
  • New direction:  to help researchers produce creatie theoretical results in important natural sciences
  • From business-oriented creativity --> science-oriented creativity

COE program framework

  • From information, "deep woods"
  • To industrialization, "death valley"
  • Want to form the "ba" in the university, so students will be knowledge creators or knowledge coordinators

A triple helix model of academic knowledge creation (Wierzbicki)

A model of knowledge synthesis and creation

  • Developing a knowledge pentagram system (i-System)
  • Sociology by Zhichang Zhu

i-System:

  • Intervention 
  • --> Involvement
  • ---> ...

Five subsystems:

  • Intervention:  take actdion in a situation
  • Intelligence: enhance our ability to understand and learn things
  • Involvement: raise our an dother people's concerns and enthusiasm
  • Imagination:  build our own idea on new or exciting thing
  • Integration: combine different knowledge so that they're closely linked

i-System, sociologist's interpretation:  structure, agency, social action and constructs

  • Three fronts as structure:
    • Scientific actual front
    • Cognitive mental front
    • Social-relational front

Knowledge and action are one, in Chinese thinking

Applications of the i-System

Technology archive

2007/08/09 14:40 Systems Applications in Business and Industry, Session 2, ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/09 14:40 Systems Applications in Business and Industry, Session 2, ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Chaired by David Ing

Context as posted in the pre-conference description.

K.C. Wang

Chinese five elements

Transformation: spring summer fall winter

At birth, can use ST strategies

Growth: SO 

Harvest: WO

Storage WT

Comments

Simultaneous?

  • Use five changes to place focus
  • If we take all five changing simultaneously, it's too possible

Weakness at one point doesn't permit progressing to the next stage

Resources for the current period, versus the next period

Michael G. Norton

Eco-towns as a way of creating a more sustainable system

(1) What system are eco-towns in?

(2) Eco-towns as a cluster?

Porter's work possibly a policy lemon

Eco-towns: Japanese policy to cycle, so that wastes seen as a raw material as more useful to something else

  • Not economically feasible, so MITI created special conditions to jump a new industry based on recycling
  • Create raw materials and a revenue stream
  • Policy is now 10 years old, successes

Potentially externality:  can't deal with demand from Japan that handles new materials

  • Thus, no wastes as resources

Failure at the global level

  • Trade and environment

Competing theories of clusters and eco-towns

  • Rely on collaboration rather than competition, and manipulation on the background regulations

But then, are eco-towns too engineered, so that Porter competition would help?

  • Two separate policies of clusters and eco-towns, not connected, might consider connecting the two

[Comments]

Example as local innovation systems?

  • Ecotowns have both national and local aspects
  • National grants; local innovation because waste can't be moved without cost
  • Waste is low-value
  • Porter's cluster theory says companies should be close to each other, and become rivals
  • Eco-towns may be innovative to start with, but then after they're running, no impetus to innovation

Competitiveness versus lifestyle

  • MITI industry clusters are heavy in bureaucracy
  • If the bureaucracy doesn't recognize an ecotown, and individual doesn't recognize it

Eco-towns as closed systems?

  • Policy to improve resource utilization, which is already quite high
  • Want cycles to go from 10% use to 40% use
  • Also to stimulate local economies
  • Eco-towns aren't set, they're bid
  • Local enterprise, local initiatives towards national
  • Originally thought of as local
  • In the UK, recycle market for cans and papers have disappeared, because they can't get the raw materials, or can't bid enough for it
  • A truckload of waste paper can get more money putting it into a container to ship to China

Eco-towns intended to be self-sustaining?

  • Yes, fees end at 2005
  • Capacity for waste recycle aren't operating at 90%, but down to 70%
  • EU electrical utility recycling, it's accepted that companies can re-export computers, etc. for recovery, but only if they have the same standards for recover
  • That's extra-territoriality

First five years of Kyushu and Nakamura were productive, and have now reached a stable level

  • Creation of Japanese government, question of trade policy and external affairs

Takafuma Nakamura

Providing maintenance systems for field engineers

Understand system failure holistically

IT trouble-shooting has 3 main shortcomings

  • It's mature and hard to understand outside of technology; leads to quick fix, damaging the organization
  • Primary troubleshooting as event chain analysis:  
    • Toyota, ask why 5 times to understand root causes -- leads to finding a big thing, rather than really finding a root cause
  • Rapid technological change

Tacit responsibility is fuzzy

To make a breakthough counter-measure, three keys:

  • Have a common language to understand a system failure
    • Safety, should understand root cause
  • Should have meta-methodology rather than a quick fix
    • Meta-methodology will enhance double loop learning
    • Meta-methodology suggested by Jackson:  van Gigch, taxonomy of a system failure, from real world to modelling world
    • Identify organizational function responsible
  • Stafford Beer:  System I to III, and homeostatic IV, system V for outer environmental change
    • Again, could be myopic
    • Event chain models, on proximate events
    • VSM can help approach correctly

Combine common language, van Gigch and VSM into a single model

SO spacemap:  responsibility amongst stakeholders

  • Ensure countermeasure is confirmed
  • Holistically
  • Ensure double-loop learning

[Comments]

Combining SOSM and VSM

  • Have two dimensions of SOSM:  system dimension (simple / complex), participation (unitary, plural, coercive), VSM as third dimension

Differences? Policy analysis versus SOSF

  • SOSF is one part of SOSM
  • e.g. miscommunication may result putting it an another area

If SOSF in mind?

  • Technical resolution, versus organizational resolution
  • Human component in IT:  communication, management or culture

Application in non-hierarchical organizations?

  • Business organizations

Difficult to retrain engineers in new method?

SO space map?

  • Subjective and Objective
  • e.g. view of responsibilities

Someone in job for more than 5 years is hard to retrain

Root cause?

Customer's perspective

2007/08/10 09:10 Systems Applications in Business and Industry, Session 3, ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/10 09:10 Systems Applications in Business and Industry, Session 3, ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Chaired by David Ing

Context as posted in the pre-conference description.

Teresa A. Daniel

Am a part of two worlds

  • Academics rewarding by publishing
  • Practitioners use knowledge
  • Perception that academics are lagging, but not true
  • Academics don't talk to practitioners, and vice versa

Paper focused on HRM domain

Academics thinking about the future, see themselves as big thinkers

  • Worked for 20-plus years in academic research, read papers (unusual), writing papers, although not valued
  • Academic researchers aren't talking to the practitioners

Collaborative gaps

Ideas with some promise:

  • Co-production, where academics and practitioners working together
    • Researchers are more pure
    • Practitioners want results
  • Win-win projects: where academics work on real world problems
  • Cross-community events
  • Overlapping communities coming together

[Comments]

Change in patent laws?

  • Changing behaviours, more focus on innovation and collaboration

(David)

  • Homo academicus
  • Finland
  • internal /external being in the world
  • boundary object

Vulgarization of ideas

  • Listening to a practitioner, with two accounting errors, and misparticipation
  • Wrote a book on internal auditing, but it didn't sell

Jae Eon Yu

At a university only with practitioners

  • Before doing Ph.D. at Lincoln, was a management consultant

When joined the system community, tried to find places where had ideas that could be applied

  • Found Churchman
  • Science of sciences
  • Difference between factual science and ethical science

In this SIG, a lot of people discuss factual science, rather than ethical science

Understanding ethical management science using a rhizome metaphor:  Deleuze and Guatteri

  • Rhizome is an open system
  • Philosophy has a logic beyond us
  • Softer systems methodology, it's difficult to engage the real world
  • Collecting data, but transcedental knowledge
  • Have to use a new image in the world:  movement and time

How to use the rhizome:  Deleuze, evolving to a heterogeneous system:  

  • Machinic assembly: buildings, male/femail
  • Enunciative assemblies:  Legal requirement for emplooyment practices, norms,

Can understand machinic assembly, but not enunciative

Propose problematization as science as science

(Discussion)

Ethics of various societies, e.g. women not having rights

  • Japanese and Korean women have women who tend to keep quiet
  • Try to involve people together

Conversations, having people together

Potentially involving people who don't want to be involved

The walk and the talk: knowing what the score is

Checkland doesn't show clearly connection processes to link logic and culture, to lead a pluralist approach

Delueze?

  • Through study with a Korean philosophy professor, French philosophers, e.g. Deleuze and Foucault

Elena Beauchamp-Akatova

Justifying the choice of an appropriate model for handling complexity

In the Netherlands, most projects have an applied nature

  • Engineering background, doctorate in sociology
  • Don't want to be linked to a specific applied research

Diversity:  different functional groups

  • Sometimes also different geographic locations
  • Objectives, e.g. airline has to maintain level of safety versus increasing investment that will impact profitability
  • Complexity from hard elements (technology) and soft (human factors); multiple goals; and different levels of social systems
  • Looking for a synthesis of views

Multicriteria decision analysis:

  • Making the strategy change

Tools, but want to change mental models

  • Multicriteria decision analysis isn't complete, doesn't include the human and soft factors
  • Ethical and aesthetics

Main question of dealing with diversity, look for holistic approach

  • Diversity allows long-term sustainability, precludes system failure
  • Need to recognize human action is heterogeneous

Rational versus meta-rational

  • Decision as a process, with feedback
  • Change of the basis of a good decision, not only multi-attribute utility
  • Potential to bring in interests of minorities

Ethics

  • Michael Norton yesterday was speaking of eco-towns, but recycling in UK is disappearing due to garbage being shipped to China
  • Ethics a duty-based

[Discussion]

Looking at companies that want to continue to control

Churchman design of inquiring system

Weick, high reliability systems

  • Self-assessment including at least 50% of employees, so that people can see the stake

2007/08/10 11:00 Gary Metcalf, "Rigor and Relevance in Systems Work", ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/10 11:00 Gary Metcalf, "Rigor and Relevance in Systems Work", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Gary S. Metcalf, President, InterConnections LLC, Ashland, KY, USA

Gary S. Metcalf

If the goal is to build a unitary tower of knowledge, we have a challenge

Four of five founders of the society came from a mathematical background

  • Terms stretching across disciplines, not leaving us with much clarity

They found something different in this society

We see something different from those who people who work in the disciplines

  • Something that creates value, year after year, in diversity

Bateson:

  • A difference that makes a difference
  • The pattern that connects

Dilemma: live between worlds of rigour, and the ambiguity of the real world

Schon: highly professional organizations rely on the rigour of a science, but they experience the dilemma of "rigor or relevance"

  • People live in a swampy lowland, to see if systems can help them

Have been working with a multinational furniture retailer, developing marketing plans

  • Marketing people want textbook plan
  • People in stores want something that works in their locales

Problems of greater human concerns lie out in the swamps

Came into systems by learning family therapy

  • You can't effect a teenager, unless you take into account the community, family, school, friends
  • All of our worlds are complex, we just choose to think that we can connect them
  • Bateson:  analogy, or does he mean something?

Similar dilemmas working management:  there's lots of theories that have no base

  • It's good to read about Jack Welch, but you can't be Jack Welch, and Jack Welch couldn't articulate

Peter Senge, Fifth Discipline, sold a million copies

Leadership in the Federal Executive Institute

  • These people live in complexity
  • They rely on science, e.g. EPA
  • They use the science
  • Dilemma: they assume good science should carry some weight, but it's not so simple
  • Taking science to a politician who worries about votes in his area
  • Current administration means need to be able to tell a story about value

If we do rigorous work, does the rigorous science define what we do?

  • Rigor dictates relevance?

Is there science, and is everything outside of science metaphysics?

  • But this leaves us as only the experts that understand
  • Outside of the swamp

More specialization, more fragmentation:  nothing new to us

  • e.g. medicine, want to go to specialist
  • Dilemma, if the specialist knows you're problem, it's the right choice; otherwise, they don't know
  • Sub-specializations in mathematics range from 1500 to 7000

If we revive the spirituality SIG in this society, do we require them to be scientific

  • Luhmann built on autopoesis in social systems

Robert Rosen was very much a mathematician, but understood the greater context

  • We live in the subsystems of viewpoints
  • Models are all different, and depend on our opinion

Fundamentalism: as problematic an issues in a global society as we can face:  demanding that there's only one way

  • Only one understanding of rigor means falling into a type of fundamentalism

Maybe the world is creating a search for us

  • Google doesn't provide the most scientific answer, it provides the most linked / used
  • A shift away from the expert-only view

Looking across the divides, makes a difference

Also a dilemma:  if only people understood systems science, and put it into universities, enlightenment

  • World continues to evolve and fragment
  • What is, versus what should be

What does system have to teach?

  • David Bohm, physicist, got into dialogue
  • All serious arguments are about different views of what is absolutely necessary:  that's what is inside the boundaries
  • Freedom names possible a creative perception of new orders of necessity:  some others are threatened
  • Some able to let go of boundaries, while others aren't

Bateson:  Think in terms of stories

  • May be able to bring down to rigor of math, but that's not the language of most people

Finding or creating differences requires rigor

  • Differences only make a difference when they are relevant, and connect to the larger world
  • To continue to get resources to continue to do good work, we need to find ways to span
  • Need to connect to the swampy world

Invitation to create next year's conference of systems that make a difference

2007/08/10 11:30 Nicholas Magliocca, "Induced Coupling: An Approach to Modeling and Managing Complex Human-Landscape Interaction

2007/08/10 11:30 Nicholas Magliocca, "Induced Coupling: An Approach to Modeling and Managing Complex Human-Landscape Interaction", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Introduction by Gary Metcalf

  • Recipient of the Sir Geoffrey Vickers award for ISSS 2007.

[Nick Magliocca]

Nicholas Magliocca

Induced coupling, coming out of human and landscape

Emergent naturalized interaction is the result of an induced coupling

Complexity driven by population growth, and mitigation of technology

Natural hazards

Two pictures:

  • Fire
  • Barrier island

Fire as a natural ecosystem

  • Seasonal conditions result in fast changes

Barrier island

  • Overwash helps maintain elevation and width relative to size
  • If have houses, they get washed away

Get a linear intensification of natural disturbance events, yet nonlinear intensification of the effects

  • About the same number of fires, but bigger impacts

Coupling:  like a celtic knot

  • Interconnections, one change impacts everywhere

Similarly, classic predator / prey:  one impacts others

  • Each ecosystem has a flow coming in and out
  • Can have one way interactions, e.g. humans eating maple sugar

Traditional human-landscape interactions

  • Landslides, earthquakes have short-terms impacts, don't see tight coupling in natural ecosystems

Induced coupling:

  • e.g. energy accumlation, with ignition sources, creates fires
  • If we suppress fires, creating opportunity for urban development, which links back to fire suppression

Hierarchical complex systems framework

  • Can describe how system components are organized, by temporal and spatial scales
  • Self-organization, tend to create order (similar to positive feedback)
  • Dissipation, tends to oppose order, smoothing out differences in time and space (similar to negative feedback)

Traffic in downtown Tokyo

  • Individual behaviours, that can be described as jams

Natural systems have a similar reasoning:  can talk about different sand grains that form dunes, that make barrier islands

  • A hierarchical complex system

Why is induced coupling "induced"?

  • Manifestation on new temporal and spatial scales
  • They don't have the large scale of natural processes

Overwash: we build beaches

Protect measures have both first and second-order effects

  • Rescale natural processes in space
  • Overwash, where it can and can't operate in interest of Outer Banks in North Carolina
  • When sea level rises, storms and surge levels get worse

Another problem: rescaling natural processes in time

  • Protect yourself against small, frequent fires, but then build up of fuel source drives bigger fires

When we alter nature processes, we have to think about it changes on temporal and spatial scales

Social decisions on environmental manager

  • Usual behaviour is risk averse
  • Deal with concrete threats, e.g. fire burning my house, not the abstract
  • Solutions often prohibitively costsly

Propose induced coupling's role to address management failures in both physical and social

  • It's an ideal tool for collaborative problem-solving

2007/08/10 11:50 Nicholas Magliocca, "Student Report", ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/10 11:50 Nicholas Magliocca, "Student Report", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Student SIG gives an opportunity to get together to discuss papers during the day

  • Society has gone more towards application recently
  • Student SIG help gets foundations from peers
  • Also opportunity to network for future systems scientists

Red thread concept from Cancun and Sonoma, good to hear what's important

  • Integration of hard and soft approach, with more respect
  • Demand for educational background
  • Talk about the primer
  • Continued pressure on Len Troncale to write a book

Primer:  Need a commitment from established members to provide feedback on the content, as a learning opportunity

Question: All of the discussion on the rigour, need some educational materials

  • But, how to we market ourselves as systems scientists, as students looking to get paid somehow

2007/08/10 11:55 Jennifer Wilby, "Membership Meeting", ISSS Tokyo 2007

2007/08/10 11:55 Jennifer Wilby, "Membership Meeting", ISSS Tokyo 2007

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Elections

  • President-elect for 2008-2009 is Tim Allen, University of Wisconsin at Madison
  • VP of Communications and Systems Education, David Ing
  • Treasurer and vp of funds, Lynn Rasmussen

Will get mail later in the year for nominations, feedback requested

Society is healthy, financially, and conferences are returning a feedback

Have 270 members this year

  • 120 regular
  • 37 retired
  • 34 developing countries
  • 55 students
  • 21 past presidents

Financial statements from the Bulletin

In the mail, over the next few weeks, will be some simplification of the bylaws, clarifying roles of president, vp of administration and treasurer, so we don't have to relearn everything

  • Please return the ballot, to approve that

Role of the trustees to help strengthen the organization

  • Using the web site to expand the presence of the society is important

Madison 2008 Retrospective

The 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences was held at the University of Wisconsin - Madison, July 13 to 18, 2008.  The main page for the conference is at http://isss.org/world/en/madison-2008 .

The final conference program appears at http://isss.org/world/en/madison-2008-conference-program-and-schedule .

Note:  These digests and audio recordings do not reflect the complete conference program.  They are voluntary contributions by an attendee active in the Special Integration Group on Systems Applications in Business and Industry.

Plenaries, Monday, July 14

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
2008/07/14 09:00 Gary Metcalf, "The Science and the Perspectives of Systems" [text digest]
[slides as PPS] (27 MB)
[slides as PDF]
(6.6 MB)
[MP3 audio]
(18 minutes, 17 MB)
2008/07/14 09:20 Bobby Milstein, "Crafting a Health System that Protects Us All:  Syndemics, Simulation Scenarios and Social Change" [text digest]
[slides as PPS] (10.9 MB)
[slides as PDF]
(4.4 MB)
[MP3 audio]
(57 minutes, 54 MB)
2008/07/14 10:45 David C. Schwartz, "The New Biology" [text digest]
[slides as PDF]x
[MP3 audio]
(40 minutes, 38 MB)
2008/07/14 11:30 Manfred Drack, "Ludwig von Bertalanffy’s Early System Approach" [text digest]
[slides as PDF]
(2.5 MB)
[MP3 audio]
(48 minutes, 45 MB)

 

Plenaries, Tuesday, July 15

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
2008/07/15 09:10 Steve Carpenter, "Scenario Thinking to Solve Complex Environmental Problems" [text digest]
[slides as PPS] (7.7 MB)
[slides as PDF]
(2.4 MB)
[MP3 audio]
(40 minutes, 37 MB)
2008/07/15 09:50 Jon Foley, "Sustainability and Global Environment: Living on a Shrinking Planet:  Challenges and Opportunities for a Sustainable Future" [text digest] [MP3 audio]
(47 minutes, 44 MB)
2008/07/15 09:50 David Waltner-Toews, The Ecosystem Approach: Complexity, Uncertainty and Managing for Sustainability" [text digest] [MP3 audio]
(46 minutes, 43 MB)

 

Plenaries, Thursday, July 17

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
2008/07/17 09:05 David Hawk, "The Business Educators Dilemma: Teaching Analytics to those who Strive to Manage Systems" [text digest] [MP3 audio]
(42 minutes, 40 MB)
2008/07/17 09:50 Bill Rouse, "Modeling & Managing Complex Systems: A Case Study of Healthcare Delivery" [text digest]
[slides as PPS] (2.3 MB)
[slides as PDF]
(557 KB)
[MP3 audio]
(71 minutes, 67 MB)
2008/07/17 11:20 Doug McDavid, "Sociable Technologies for Enterprising Sociality"
[Second Life Location-Based Link]
[text digest]
[slides as PPS] (20.8 MB)
[slides as PDF
(2.6 MB)
[MP3 audio]
(57 minutes, 54 MB)

 

Plenaries, Friday, July 18

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
2008/07/18 09:05 Devin Wixon, "Using Systems to Clean Up Messes:  Complexity, Global Client Change and Soil Carbon Cycling" [text digest]
[slides as PDF] 217 KB
[MP3 audio]
(18 minutes, 17 MB)
2008/07/18 09:25 Jennifer Wilby, "Complexity and Public Health Policy" [text digest]
[slides as PDF] 276 KB
[MP3 audio]
(28 minutes, 25 MB)
2008/07/18 09:50 Tim Allen, "Hierarchies Over Time:  Hierarchy Theory in Relation to Ecological Economic Theory of Return on Effort" [text digest]
[slides as PDF] 1.8 MB
[MP3 audio]
(50 minutes, 45 MB)
2008/07/18 11:05 Jim Gustafson, "Vertical and Horizontal Scaling Strategies to Avoid Destruction in the Modern Contest: Riding Out the Perturbations of its Largest Scale, of the Seizing of High Gain/Cheap Energy and the Expensive Refining of Low Gain Energy, As Argued by Tim Allen and Colleagues" [text digest]
[slides as PDF] 29 KB
[MP3 audio]
(54 minutes, 49 MB)
2008/07/18 12:00 Speakers from UW Madison, Botany Department: Tim Allen's Sandpit:  Megan Pease, Peter Allen, Devin Wixon (1057), Steve Thomforde (1074) [text digest]
[Sandpit slides as PDF] 266 KB  
[Pease slides as PDF] 130 KB 
[Allen slides as PDF] 1.6 MB 
[Wixon slides as PDF] 121 KB
[Thomforde slides as PDF] 8.5 MB
[MP3 audio]
(32 minutes, 30 MB)
2008/07/18 12:30 Ockie Bosch, "ISSS 2009, Making Liveable, Sustainable Systems Unremarkable" [text digest] [MP3 audio]
(25 minutes, 23 MB)

 

Parallel Streams

Time Speaker Slides / Digest Audio
2008/07/14 13:30 Special Integration Group on Hierarchy Theory:  
Duncan Shaw; David Ing; Sue Gabriele
[Shaw slides as PDF] (65 KB)
[Ing slides as PDF] (1 MB)
[Gabriele slides as PDF] (217 KB)
[MP3 audio]
(88 minutes, 82 MB)
2008/07/14 15:30 Special Integration Group on Systems Applications in Business and Industry:  Panel conversation on globalization and localization [...] [MP3 audio]
(88 minutes, 83 MB)
2008/07/16 09::00 Special Integration Group on Systems Applications in Business and Industry, Special Session on Dialogue:  
Gary Metcalf; David Ing
[see session description and links to papers at systemicbusiness.org]
[Ing slides as PDF] [MP3 audio]
(82 minutes, 77 MB)
2008/07/16 11::00 Special Integration Group on Systems Applications in Business and Industry:
Doug McDavid (filling in a gap for Marianne Kosits, who cancelled last minute);  Kambiz Maani; Junyu Minegishi
[see session description and links to papers at systemicbusiness.org]
[text digest] [MP3 audio]
(90 minutes, 85 MB)
2008/07/17 13:30 Special Integration Group on Systems Applications in Business and Industry:  
John Pourdehnad; Takafumi Nakamura; Shankar Sankaran
[see session description and links to papers at systemicbusiness.org]
[text digest] [MP3 audio]
(81 minutes, 76 MB)
2008/07/17 15:30 Special Integration Group on Systems Applications in Business and Industry:  
Allenna Leonard, Jerome Galbrun
[see session description and links to papers at systemicbusiness.org]
[text digest] [MP3 audio]
(89 minutes, 65 MB)

2008/07/14 09:00 Gary Metcalf, "The Science and the Perspectives of Systems", ISSS Madison 2008

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Gary Metcalf, President

20080714_0900_ISSS_Metcalf.jpg


Program

The Science and the Perspectives of Systems

What makes a difference?

  • The way that we see things
  • When I look the night sky, I don't see what others see
  • At one point of time, the way we see was given more accuracy
  • New way of seeing

Sciences, ways of understanding, of ways to show us the way things are:  three ways

1. Traditional science, mechanics of the universe, so the view became mechanical

  • Extracted, and incorporated it into all sorts of way
  • e.g. EPA revaluing how we value life, which impacts policy makers through cost-offset ratios
  • Taking a traditional view, gives us a closed and succinct view, and a world that we can control
  • Problem: sense of control seems to get lost

2. Evolution, as compared to traditional science

  • This throw us back into nature
  • We are a part of it, and it is a part of us
  • Baboon, Ishmael
  • Difficulty:  we're not going to take outselves back to a world before agricultural
  • We can't support how we are today, and undo how we are in the world
  • Difficulty:  decisions at the highest levels are increments
  • G8 discussions on reducing impact:  economic impacts
  • Problem:  targeting 60% reduction in our emissions in 2100; but what will the world be like in 2050
  • Systems thinking people brought this up years ago:  Jay Forrester
  • Club of Rome was written again in Wall Street Journal, this year

Have had people meeting together to think about what's next

  • Macy Conferences, 1950s
  • Expanded view of the next science
  • Had a view of information coming out, in a way that we didn't understand before

Convergences:  Nicolas Rashevsky did an analysis of everything from cell to macro society

  • Didn't do this just for the math
  • It was the way for him to see what was in the world
  • Each viewpoint changes the way we see what we see
  • Difficulty:  how do we describe what we don't understand

Most recently, how information has impacted:  Wired Magazine, Chris Anderson, "The End of Science"

  • Hypothesis - test is dated
  • Use computers
  • Assumption:  we haven't decided what it is to study
  • Limited, headed this direction in many ways
  • This is another new paradigm of understanding ourselves and the world

Where does this bring us?

  • The people who founded this society had a different view
  • They offered us a perspective, but not absolute
  • They offered a way to think about things differently

Von Bertalanffy:  a clear understanding of moving to the next level, but not settled, not the next phase of what was

  • The reason the paradigm makes a difference is that it gives us a new way to see the world, to seek information, in a different way
  • Systems thinkers do this better
  • We can step out of the way of thinking

 

2008/07/14 09:20 Bobby Milstein, "Crafting a Health System that Protects Us All"

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Intro by Gary Metcalf

Bobby Milstein

  • Center for Disease Control, Syndemics
  • Cultural anthropology, science, systems science


Something that matters to all of us:  who lives, who dies, how much money we spend on things

A systems approach to public health science:  if not systems, would be mechanistics

5 questions:

1. What's changing in the world? 

  • Retrospective. 
  • CDC does telephone surveys, of the last 30 days, how healthy have you felt?
  • Over 15 years, it's been down
  • Have lost about a working day per month over the last 15 years
  • This generates passion and anger

2. Presses towards questions:  why?

  • Epidemiology
  • Systems approach can't stop here

3.  Where will this head in the future?

  • Scenarios, could be tomorrow, or transformation changes
  • Want to narrow the envelope of possible futures

4.  How do we get on trajectory?

5.  Who do we need to get onto a trajectory?

  • Opportunity for actors to make a difference

U.S. is in an election year

  • Seeing a consensus that the health system needs to change

Have seen this before

3 approaches

  • Piecemeal approach
  • Complicated schemes that were opposed by special interests
  • Assumptions that healthcare dynamics are separate from other areas of public concern

Policy resistance comes from a narrow view

  • Thus, use a boundary critique
  • The health system is not the health system perceived
  • e.g. lack of health protection causes need for health care
  • e.g. lack of health equity
  • Challenge to align conceptual orientation with a method:  it's not right or wrong, it's a conceptual way of thinking
  • Grounded in studies of innovation, and epidemics
  • Innovators borrow from other fields of practice, redefine vocabulary and language

Syndemic: one health problem predisposes you or makes it easier of you to get another health problem.

  • Health is only one part of life
  • We can have some influence over own health, then how well can we organize upstream?
  • Health states <--> living conditions
  • Impacts health policy, and social policy

Epidemic

  • 19th century people didn't change nature of men, they adjusted the relationships with men
  • Specialization gives benefits, but leads to fragmentation

Syndemic

  • Not just entities, but how things link in the world

Procedures to formalize ways of seeing the world

  • Mostly time series models and multivariates, to get variables
  • Haven't done so much on structural views that would show all new trends, use in a what-if mode

CDC

  • Not just diseases, but patterns
  • Communicate with the field

CDC got ASysT award, this year as first

Want to understand how leaders in health service transformation

  • Need to learn in a simpler system, first:  simulation
  • Then, it is too audacious to represent the whole U.S. health system:  yes, it would be like being in the middle of a hurricane, trying to understand what is going on
  • Approach:  narrow to a few discrete policies
  • Start with insurance, but then get beyond that focus on cost on health care delivery

10 policies:

  • Insurance
  • Qualty of care
  • Reimbusement rates
  • Administrative structure
  • Ability of people to quick smoking or exercise
  • Exposure 
  • Subgroups of individuals more advantaged or disadvantaged
  • Building public leadership, so that issues can be tackled effectively

Rendered this as a game:  the Health Protection Game

  • Proritize the 10 policies
  • Scoring system:  
    • save lives
    • improve well being
    • achieve equity
    • lower healthcare spending
    • expenses
  • User's challenge to move it to a better state
  • It's a structured list of health policies

Last week, news on whether we should suppress doctor's reimbursements

  • What does this do in simulation?
  • Cutting reimbursements could increase death rate rather quickly, as cutting reimbursement reduces quality, so people will go to ER
  • More unhealthy days
  • Inequity has improved, and then rebounds later
  • It suppresses costs for 1.5 years, and then worsening health patterns increases overall costs
  • Can then drill down to see why

Looking at universal coverage policies:

  • They improve health
  • In no cases does this result in saving money
  • Almost always erode inequities

Upstream health protection is favourable, but takes 10 to 15 years

Have prototype, developing this

  • Can see what we're getting the results
  • Challenge to position this as a tool for leadership, not create another report presciption that will go on the shelf
  • Polynesian idea of wayfinding
  • They want a plausible pathway

Learning how to transform health systems, not just afflictions or adverse living conditions, but also some efforts to build power where all citizens have a role

  • Changes from a conversation on quality of outcomes to one focused on equality of opportunities, as equality of agency

Difference between syndemic and epidemic view

  • Boundary critique
  • Causal mapping for governing dynamics
  • Dynamic modeling to get plausible futures
  • Democratic public work to get navigation freedoms

More information at http://www.cdc.gov/syndemics

Questions?

Longer living.  Increasing human biomass?

  • Have not linked to environmental sustainability
  • This deserves more connection
  • We lack the leadership to connect them together
  • Would be delighted to see these types of studies
  • Forrester, World Dynamics, had increasing population
  • In health field, the successes in the past suppress infectious diseases
  • More people living longer with needs for higher health
  • In this country, health care costs can lead to bankrupcy

Israel, public health discourage people, people dying sooner

  • Providing more insurance coverage, versus engaging cost of health
  • Guidelines are currently 50% of recommended to maintain health

Feedback: dynamics between sexes, could reduce population, then would impact education.  Complexities around accountabilities, achieving goal within a subsystem, impacting whole

  • Millenium Impact Assessments have gender equity and other factors
  • Challenge finding people who can think planetary, and then do something within their own organizations
  • Political science that systems scientists may not have harnessed enough

In New Zealand 2007, "Wellbeing and its time to come", our common future, getting people involved in the policy.  Simulation approach dovetails with Australia evidence-based policy, were modeling is based on individuals, enhancing democracy

  • Pitfall of professionalism:  someone better education is better trained
  • Some people think need a Ph.D. just to be confused
  • Need to open up the boundary
  • Other conditions, e.g. transportation, environment
  • Getting a non-partisan view

American living in Canada, part of a survey that asked what provided for good health.  Health care available was the fourth criteria:  Income, lifestyle and occupation higher.  How is it possible, given system dynamics model, looking at income disparities, lifestyle choices, and risks that people take?  Studies of EPA, and how much climate change, spending on making roads safer, bigger picture

  • U.S. PBS aired 4 parts in 7 hours on unnatural causes:  is inequality making us sick?
  • Doctor like taking your car into a garage
  • Pivoting from widespread confusion about are they important to both/and

Allopathic care, disease prevention.  Medicine is focused on the organism down.  Traditional medicine looks at health, well-being and happiness, organism in context.  Commensurability of alternative medicines

  • Health protection into system, 4 states
    • 1. Safer, healthier people
    • 2. Vulnerable people
    • 3. Afflicted people without complications
    • 4. Afflicted people with complications
  • For #4: have a health response, then secondary and teritiary prevention
  • For #3: primary prvention
  • For #2 and #1, targeted protection
  • Or between #1 and #2, general protection through reducing adverse living conditions
  • Can work on all, different metrics

Impact on decision makers, very accepted in CDC higher management and legislative changes, accept this?  Fifth generation of the systems movement, government and engineering, system of systems, where NSF has decided not to fund SoS?  Connected to Peter Corning or Haken's book?

  • Corning's work was a big influence, but haven't yet had to chance to get to depth on situational.
  • Systems of systems, have a superficial understanding, sympathetic, need a broader view, triage win
  • Acceptance in heterogeneous organizations, early adopters, think we're making great progress
  • Monograph on web site, required reading for all health care professionals, getting endorsement on the foreword was more difficult than writing the whole paper
  • Tipping point in interest in other organizations

 

2008/07/14 10:45 David C. Schwartz, "The New Biology", ISSS Madison 2008

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Intro by Gary Metcalf

David Schwartz

  • Professor of Chemistry and Genetics
  • Gary went to TED conference, and heard Craig Ventor mention David Schwartz, some history that they worked on
  • Research on development of new genomic models:  nano and micro fluiditics, bioinformatics ...

20080714_1045_ISSS_Schwartz.jpg


Want to enable universal human genome analytics

Problem #1:  Maybes

  • Information technology, simulations, analytical tools, can generate thousands of maybes per day
  • Findings in cyberspace that need experiments to become stories that become real scientific findings

Example:  a spreadsheet with thousands of entries

  • Out of thousands, some genes may be associated with cancer
  • Pick a few findings, working a lab is really slow

Second problem:  biological space

  • 1/3 computer science, math and statistics
  • 1/3 chemistry, physics and engineering
  • Balance is biology and genetics
  • At Wisconsin, training the "new biologist"
  • Train them to move around the disciplines
  • Teach them to embrace team work
  • Use sophisticated instrumentation to plumb biological complexity

The new systems

  • To a few years ago, could write a Ph.D. thesis on one gene
  • Over the last few years, need to think about many different genes, think of whole genomes, e.g. 6 feet of DNA for humans
    • Instead of dealing with one gene, work with many genome
    • When multiple genomes, then can deal with whole populations
    • Rapidly getting ability to sequence everyone
  • Many cells:  cell biologist, measure many cells, sensitivity is important, so need lots of cells
    • Have been doing a bulk sample, now can do on individual cells
    • To get statistical significance, have to take many measurements
  • Lots as individual molecules
    • e.g. PSA test, want sensitivity
    • Now, ability of ultimate sensitivity, at the single molecule level
  • Single amino acid, from mass spectrometry:  measure weight to down to an hydrogen atom
    • Weigh and then weigh again, could lose an eyelash, flake of dandruff

Still have too many measures

Old approach:  tubes of DNA

  • DNA samples, go into a test tube with a robot
  • Suppose a million samples, then need a huge room just to house the samples
  • Brute force approach

New approach:  Take single DNA molecules

  • Trivial to do sophisticated measurements on each DNA molecule

Modes of inquiry

  • Have been able to do discovery science as large scale screens, based on chance
  • Also hypothesis-driven theories, based on mind
  • Combine discovery and hypothesis, so chance favours the prepared mind

New biology:  single cell, single molecule systems, high multidimensional databases

Biological impedance matching

  • Given advances in IT, the amount of maybes has increased, while the number of stories are about the same
  • Are massive candidates possible? No

The loop:  hypothesis generation by an individual or small group, produce candidates

  • For each candidate, do an experiment
  • Get results, which rarely have expected results, so leads to more experiments, leading to exponential
  • This is not sufficient, now

Article from Wired magazine, The End of Science

  • Don't think it will capture everything
  • Biology will remain an experimental science
  • Can imagine infinite complexity

Look at physicists

  • There are theoreticians, and then those who do the experiments (e.g. CERN)

Large data sets, e.g. CERN can detect 800 million proton-proton collisions a second, as much as entire European telecom network, can pick up one collision

Biology doesn't work at such high energies

Generating large datasets involves automation, multiplexing and parallelization

  • This is a hard problem
  • Need to be able to rapidly put together complex, multidimensional experiments

Have engineer envy:  love their tools, CAD/CAM

  • e.g. creating a plastic money clip
    • After engineer finishes design, then manufacturing, a solid printer on a layer of polymer
    • At end, get a set of money clips
    • Gives detailed iteration, could test as an object
    • Fast from cyberspace into physical space
    • Why can't we do this in biology?

Would like biological CAD/CAM

  • From database, create simulations
  • Have visualizations, to create an experimental assembler
  • The components of cells, peptides, nucleic acids
  • Compare results against hypotheses, continue until satisfied

Gutenberg's time, 1400s, invention of movable type

  • One page, carved out one plate
  • This is how we do experiments today
  • Gutenberg came up with the idea of moveable type, can change, and don't have to throw away

Movie:  water droplets

  • Green experimental protein, red experimental protein, could view each
  • Bring these together in juxtaposition, look at interactions

Approach the ability, in biological experimentation, to do movable type

What's missing:  operating system

  • What do do with the measurements
  • The new biologists have to handle this

Questions

Component-based programming and interfaces.  Movable type simple, in biology want interactions.  Interesting, but a long ways away.

  • Mindful of pitfalls
  • When we put systems together, if we don't get answers, we don't get funding
  • There are some emerging companies, e.g. microdroplet is getting commercial, think may become universal
  • Other ways to represent experimental motifs
  • Can represent gene sequences on optical fibres
  • IBM to hack circuit boards, could be used

Epigenetics, autogenetics?

  • Epigenetics is the great frontier
  • Environment and parts that aren't genetic
  • Biological field is in infancy
  • DNA bases, ACTG as describing a blueprint isn't correct
  • Little notations on DNA molecule, DNA manipulation
  • Up to 2 months ago, didn't have proper means to see where the manipulation takes place

Molecular biology are filled with proteins affecting cellular process.  New causation?  Network causation, how do we review these papers?

  • Everything is in turmoil, similar to change in 19th/20th century from regular mechanics to quantum mechanics
  • Think it's real, doesn't fit in frameworks
  • Systems biology, pharmaceuticals have been doing this from 20th century
  • Problem, too much interpretation and too few measurements, trying to fit into old paradigms

Network theory has involved system biology, but there's other systems processes that other scientists aren't taking advantages.

  • Directly contact investigators and make suggestions
  • Then how to write a grant review

New experiments.  Hierarchies and modularies.  Conceive of experiments as hierarchical as modularity.

  • Thinking in terms of experimental motifs

2008/07/14 11:30 Manfred Drack, "Ludwig von Bertalanffy’s Early System Approach", ISSS Madison 2008

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Intro by Gary Metcalf

Manfred Drack for the von Bertalanffy Lecture

  • Not only interested in von Bertalanffy archives, read them original German, digging
  • Biomemetics
  • Centre for Appropriate Technologies
  • Systems theory at Department of Theoretical Biology
  • Bertalanffy Center for the Study of Systems Sciences:

von Bertalanffy was clear about his thoughts, and what he was bringing forward

von Bertalanffy, born in Vienna 1901, died in Buffalo in 1972

Early influences

  • Philosophy:  Maurice Schlick, leader of Vienna Circle, and with Reininger supervised dissertation
    • Vaihinger
    • Ancient Greek philosopher
    • Cusanus, Leibniz, perspectivists
    • Goethe, morphologists
    • Nicolai Hartmann, stratified view of the world
  • Science
    • Paul Weiss
    • Wof van Kohler, gestalt psychology
    • Lotka, the grandfather of general systems theory

Bertalanffy's Ph.D. thesis: interested in the different levels in science, from the beginning

  • Biology, sociology, psychology, all levels are already there

At the beginning, devoted to biology, although trained in philosophy

Core problem: conflict between vitalism and mechanicism (substance essential for life, vs. organization as a machine).

Mechanicism, Pourvreau 2005, comes from 4 concepts

  • Analytico-summative approach, can investigate the parts of the whole, and come up with a summation
  • Physicalism:  sufficient to only use physical laws
  • Determinism:  the state at the moment is the function of the former state
  • Reactivism:  something is only reacting to stimulus from the outside

Conflict is essentially metaphysical, and can't be solved by science

  • Bertalanffy came up with an organic view
  • Core problem in life is order and organization in the organism
  • Key question in biology is to find out about order and organization, with wholeness as a primary attribute

Basic aim:  to liberate wholeness from its metaphysical connotations, and arrive a strong scientific theory

Systems:  it's not just the parts, the sum of the parts, but also the relations between the parts

  • This is hard to investigate in details
  • Should also look at laws, at another level
  • Can compare to statistical thermodynamics, don't care about single atoms

Different perspectives necessary

  • Physico-chemical
  • Organismic perspective (systems)
  • Teleology
  • History:  products of history

What in the whole denotes a causal equilibrium process appears for a part as a teleological process.

General organismic principles

  • Organism is an open system in a flux equilibrium
  • The striving of the organic whole for the maximum of formness, is an animate process
  • Primary activity, as compared to reactivist attitude, in biology the organism does things by itself

Basic concepts

  • Wholeness
  • Open system in flux equilibrium
  • Hierarchy and hierarchichisation
  • Primary activity
  • Conservation of integrity:  if you disturb the system, it will try to go back

Bertalanffy doesn't define system until 1945, in the first article written in German

  • A system is a complex of elements in interaction
  • Then tries to derive system laws in the living
  • Apply in morphology, physiology, biocoenosis, evolutionary theory, genetics

Focused on morphology and physiology

  • Were separate fields in biology at the time, but had to be combined
  • Thought growth would be the problem that combined those theories
  • Combining the dynamic morphology, developmental biology and physiology with laws

Math modeling:  growth is related to mass, assimilation and dissimilation

  • Change in math over time
  • Purely deductive

Biocoenosis and ecosystems

  • Flux and steady state, not the same as in organism, but the scheme is kind of the same
  • Not an individual, but how different species come in and do things

Homology:

  • Not the material from which the organ originates, but then the organizing relationships come through from the material and is imprinted
  • It's not important what the material is, but where it is positioned in the organism

Cell theory

  • Aggregate of building blocks
  • Multicellular organism is not same as the single cell:  higher level
  • Physiologically, life is not the sum of single cells, but organized in a different way

Darwinian selection

  • Summation of a single modification of similar traits
  • It's reactivist to environmental conditions

In evolutionary theory, Rupert Riedl was a student of Bertalanffy's, and Manfred's supervisor

  • Interconnectiveness of genes, hierarchy in the genome
  • See the feedback between the genotype and phenotype to make sure that the organism can adapt quickly enough

Riedl expanded system approach from atoms to cosmos

  • Levels aren't build on top of each other
  • Exposed selection forces on levels above
  • Book isn't translated to English
  • Introduced Aristotle's four causes

Bertalanffy also tried to used the systems approach to genetics

  • The whole organism emerges out of the whole genome
  • So not a single gene for red eyes

Ethology:  Paul Weiss, experimental biologist in Vienna

  • Ph.D. thesis, the resting position of butteflies
  • How do butterflies respond to light and gravity when resting?
  • Organisms aren't predictable out of parameters
  • Said that it's important to come from a systems approach

Weiss came out with field laws, and was referenced by Bertalanffy

Weiss's system definition:  interested in how a system establishes its state and influence from outside

Have similar concepts between Weiss and Bertalanffy

  • Wholeness
  • Hierarchical view of biology
  • Dynamic understand
  • Primary activity of the organism
  • Conservation of the integrity of the system
  • Biology as an autonomous discipline
  • Laws separate from physics, at a higher over
  • Both tried to generalize systems approaches

Weiss was also an early member of the Club of Rome

Systems in Ethology:  Konrad Lorenz, new Berlanffy in teaching times

Lutz was nickname of Bertalanffy

Epistemology:

  • Organismic biology as a scientific program
  • Not talking about ontology, just trying to get an epistemology that can deal with the problems of life
  • This incorporates an perspectivist approach over realism
  • Can approach objectivity, not fundamentally opposed to constructivism:  can arrive at the same constants

Toward a general systemology

Conclusion

  • Extends system view to several levels of biology
  • Training as philosopher meant profound, not just philosophy but also science
  • Different dimensions of the systems approach, integrates:  many misunderstandings as people talk in many dimensions (e.g. science, epistemology, ontology, world picture)

Mostly in epistemology, Bertalanffy didn't talk about the thing itself

[Questions]

Have seen people going in divergent directions, see common root in Bertalanffy.  Interested in GST, looking for ontology.  GST book starts 20 pages of redefining with GST is:  went quantitative, people put down as deterministic, controlling persons, and Bertalanffy prefers qualititive.  Look for ontology that could apply in all fields.

  • Descriptive model is better than no model at all, which incorporates qualitative
  • He was keen, though, to also create quantitative models

Darwin.  Production of novel wholes?  Why isn't the system recognized as an evolutionary principle?

  • I don't know
  • Bertalanffy tried to incorporate the historical dimension in his work, but couldn't
  • It's hard to take history of evolution into account, which you must
  • It's tricky problem
  • Selection in evolution is part of system, but there must be other things, because accident isn't enough for whole to emerge

Importance of biological knowledge to people to learn systemics

  • I don't think so
  • It's important to explain things in biology as well, but don't need to know each and everything about biology
  • It's helpful, though

2008/07/15 09:10 Steve Carpenter, "Scenario Thinking to Solve Complex Environmental Problems", ISSS Madison 2008

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Gary Metcalf

Today, moving up to ecological systems, the earth

Steve Carpenter, research into inland water

  • Chair of a section of the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment

20080715_0900_ISSS_Carpenter.jpg


Scenarios works

Maybe not the only way, but an example of the way it works

Topics:

  • Uncertainties
  • Scenarios
  • Summary, gaps, needs

Recognized uncertainties, imaginable outcomes, unasked questions

Even when we know what questions to ask, or forecasts are wrong

  • Evaluation of world-ending disasters

Some computable, e.g. super volcanoes

  • Some completely non-computable:  no experience with robots taking over the earth
  • Global warming physically computable, but social changes aren't

Computing probability of extreme events, surprisingly large

  • Gaussian:  if you know everything, it's pretty well
  • Tails thin, probabilities drop like a rock
  • If you don't know everything, then you have to use Student-T, which has fatter tails
  • If you've only seen one event in history, the distribution is almost flat
  • Probabilities are high when low degrees of freedom

Often, we don't know what questions to ask, we've failed to perceive what we know

  • e.g. dust bowl of great plains, 1930
  • Farmed in a model that worked in east
  • Thousands of farmers used wrong methods
  • Risk not computed, because questions not asked

All possible futures

  • Have models and observations
  • Helps in recognized uncertainties
  • But then there's so many unasked questions
  • We can try to colonize the space of unasked quesitons with imaginable outcomes
  • This is the task taken on by scenario thinking:  increasing the space of imaginable outcomes

Scenarios and process

Scenarios begin from available perspectives in the world:

  • Heterogeneous:  Some may be more competent, some may be louder
  • Need to sample and integrate them
  • Each perspective brings a small part
  • Averages may bring a blurry picture, a serious limitation to go forward
  • Better to struggle for a more precise view
  • Integrated view may be strange, but it's worth it to get there

To obtain scenarios, sample perspectives, cluster the perspectives and condense to a few scenarios

  • Scenarios have to be 2 to 5, and have to be even, so politicians won't try to just take the middle one

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

  • 95 experts, 25 countries
  • Met on every continent
  • Figure out the future of life support in 2050
  • Traced out 4 stories from 2000 through to 2050

Quick summary:  Cork, Ptereset, et al. 2008

Poor / rich, and rural / urban

1. Global Orchestration: globalized

2. Order from strength: globalization fails

3. Adapting mosaic: heterogenous development path, rich and poor more intermingled, experiments, failures and successes, and people learned

4. Technogarden: globalized, centralized, massive investment

Combined information from qualitative assessment, quantitative data

  • Ran out of time, harmonization was less than perfect

How to use scenarios?

Example:  the U.S. need to spend $1.6 trillion to replace failing infrastructure

  • Could just rebuild the same stuff, same way
  • Or, could upgrade infrastructure and bring up to current standards, modern
  • We could completely rethink infrastructure for a changing world, e.g. challenges of epidemics that the transportation system needs to deal with, and then re-engineering around challenges
  • Scenarios gives framework, consistent logic and models to evaluate responses
  • Decisions robust across scenarios are the best choices

Summary

  • Playful thinking is serious business, means protected space
  • Need positive stories, better than negative visions
  • Need blunt warnings of dangerous paths
  • Need shadow networks to link groups outside of global politics, a source of resilience
  • Collective thinking by diverse cross sections of people is powerful

Gaps:

  • Few people trained for collaborative thinking:  lots of great people but finding and bringing them in is hard, could modify university training to make people more facile
  • Need institutions to look at forward-looking processes, need find to ways to get around the blockages
  • Have examples of structured processes to bring together multiple process, science and art
  • Need information for scenarios:  e.g. state of environmental monitoring, spotty, and getting worse in many places in the world
  • Need tools for networking, mapping, telecommunications

Needs:

  • Education:  good at educating experts, but need to combine expertise with skills to collaborate with others, and skilled public
  • Shadow networks, free of internal governance
  • Need ongoing assessments of planetary life support, have IPCC (focused on climate) that we could build on, but needs to be ongoing

Each of us should think about planning for the future

Questions

Who's in the room, structured dialogue?  Generalists, subject experts?

  • Depends on scope
  • If regional, analyze the system first, and get political actors, economic actor, get a feel
  • For global scenarios, not really going to get 6.3 billion people together
  • Have seen global scenarios, a lot done already
  • Then did a telephone survey of leaders, heads of states of countries, presidents of environmental NGOs, all househouse names
  • Asked about resilience of the world, hopes and fears
  • Expertise: regional teams, try to bring in 6 or 8 people from demography, economic, ecology, range of ages, range of countries
  • Resiliance Alliance has brought in a lot of people
  • In addition to experts, there are team / fun people
  • In Millenium Assessment, had to represent world the best we could, much harder to run, less control over personalities

Gaps and needs, training collaborative skills.  Root process methodologies that you like?

  • Approach to pick people that I think are good at it, then learn by doing
  • It's been pretty much seat of the pants
  • Online workbook, resilience workbook, and we use that to train young people to participate
  • Mostly, we just jump in and do it
  • I run a course in scenario thinking with practical parts, and find that students are great at this
  • There must be formal ways of doing this teaching that I don't know about

Structured processes, science and art.  Projective scenarios and backcasting scenarios.  Probabilistic and possibilistic normative.

  • There's a large literature on forecasting, backcasting, normative and non-normative.
  • Approach that I've taken is to focus on peoples' views of resilence, hopes and fears, and find possible pathways to the future
  • Not setting normative to the future
  • After the scenarios have been set, that NGOs often taken them to develop normative goals
  • In projecting environmental futures, have low confidence in available models extrapolating from the past to the future
  • The parameters are out of historical ranges
  • Also, uncertainty estimates are wildly overstated:  tails are compressed far more than they should be
  • Those models are likely to be wrong, although that doesn't say they're useless, because they have good principles, e.g. conservation of mass -- is there enough phosphorous on the earth to do that?
  • Forecasting is weak, and don't do backcasting

What kind of systemic tools are you using?  Systems dynamics?  Dynamics for social networks?

  • Different experts from teams bring their own systems views
  • Typical systems dynamics types of models

 

2008/07/15 09:50 Jon Foley, "Sustainability and Global Environment: Living on a Shrinking Planet: Challenges and Opportunities"

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Gary Metcalf, introduction

Steve Carpenter, research into inland water

  • Center for Sustainability and Global Environment
  • Computer models, satellite
  • Large scale ecosystem, patterns of land use

20080715_0950_ISSS_Foley.jpg


Systems that can make a difference

  • What can we learn from systems thinking?

Shrinking planet

  • We're getting bigger
  • We've now mapped every corner of the world, and we're using all of it

Not only a growing population, but a growing force:  technological

Combination of population growth, where between 1950 and 2000 population had double

  • Goods and servies have grown seven-fold
  • Pressure on natural resources:  food, water, agriculture
  • Food consumption tripled
  • Energy use, fossil fuel as increased four-fold

How do we use land?

  • Land deforested, will become cattle grazing
  • Pressure on rainforest isn't beef, it's soybeans
  • Mad cow mean vegetable proteins, although a lot to feed beef
  • Amazon looks more like Iowa
  • Connections growing

Urban

  • Fastest growing city is Las Vegas
  • Green is irrigated lawns, growing rapidly
  • Not only issue of land use, but water use

Most land is for agriculture

  • Use 3 million km2 in cities, c.f. 18 million km2 in cropland (the size of south America), and 30 million km2 of pastures
  • This is 40% of all of the land on the earth
  • Greatest change in biosphere, more than climate change

Water use

  • Photo out of plane:  fields of iceberg lettuce growing in the desert
  • Using water in places that don't have excess water

Colorado River flow regime, doesn't even flow into ocean any more

Poster child of problem:  Aral Sea

  • Once one of largest inland sees in the world
  • 1950s and 1960s, Russians diverted water, as feeds from snow melt into sea
  • Today, have lost about 70% of the land, and more in volume
  • Indigenous fish are now extinct
  • Channels carved into dessert to try to keep ships from the shorelind

About 50% of the water on the earth's surface is being used

  • Not just quantity of water, it's quality

Use of atmosphere

  • Troposhere is 10km wide, 6 miles, less than the New York subway
  • Combustion of fuels, are changing the composition of the atmosphere

It's a serious issue

  • Muir Glacier in Alaska becoming Muir Lake
  • Rock has become a deciduous forest

Traditional disciplinary science, have test tube problem, e.g. global warming is happening, and nothing more

  • But in other test tubes, have tropical deforestation, overdrafting water suppliers, pollution
  • All happening at the same time, and don't have scenarios
  • Interesting stuff is in the complex behaviours

Scale problem

  • Problems are massive
  • Planet changing, not Love Canal
  • Could have catastrophic results -- and I'm an optimist
  • Trillions of dollars

It's human problem:  dilemma

  • Impacts on human health
  • How does climate change affect human health?
  • Cartogram, stretching out the world, on the biggest polluters:  U.S., Europe, China
  • Earth is already 1 degree warmer
  • In may places of the world, when temperature goes up, deaths go up
  • Water-borne, food-borne, bug-borne
  • 1 degree temperature change causing deaths mostly in Africa and South Asia, lowest estimate is 150,000 extra deaths per year, equivalent to dropping a nuclear bomb on Madison every year

This is a world nobody wants

  • It impacts the people least able to respond:   the poor
  • Impacts on global economy and national security

We're running out of time

  • Lags:  chemistry is easy
  • Carbon dioxide stays there for 110 years
  • Then heat takes time to build up, 30 to 50 years
  • Today, we're catching up to pollution from 1948
  • If we started burning coal tomorrow, climate would warm for the next 30 to 50 years

Other lags

  • We can't stop on a dime
  • We have a narrow window to prevent catastrophic change, if climate thing is the only thing we're worried about, and there's more to worry about
  • We have the next decade or two to steer the ship

Long lag times, poor information on state of system, poential for overshoot and collapse

Optimist:  can find solutions

Solutions informed by systems thinking

How do we think about our stuff?  It's not population so much, but use of resources

  • Rich want to be richer, while population is slowing down

Coolest thing you own, but if you put it into a vault it's not help

  • It's about services
  • Efficient provision of services, e.g. water heaters, showers, flush toilets

In nature, vast opportunities

  • e.g. put phosphorous into the system, and it gets reused more often
  • There's no waste in ecosystems, just food for something else
  • It's a room temperature, with renewable energy
  • Lots of biomimicry opportunities

Hidden economy:

  • We externalize a lot in hidden books
  • Human rights, child slavery, economy needs to learn from us
  • Economics needs to change:  ecosystem goods and services
  • Pollinating bees, forests
  • Buying and selling commodities
  • Emerging carbon markets
  • Provision of water as a service

Emerging field of social networks

  • Cool way to enhance collaboration
  • Map of the Internet:  the whole 6 degrees of separation
  • Scale-free networks, huge connections
  • Emergent communication abilities
  • Wikis, myspace, facebook:  use it for something more than dating
  • Organic use of Google maps, Google earth, e.g. people tracking the flow of avian flu, faster than people at WHO could

Optimistic:  Lessons of systems dynamics would give us the opportunity to change the future

It's not just the science, need to develop morals

  • Will impact the future of humanities
  • We've inherited this moment in history:  a gift and a curse
  • Have to make a choice between who we are, and who we could be

Plea for help

  • Have learned a lot from system dynamics and systems thinking
  • Would like to get help from out networks

Questions

Live on a barrier island on Long Beach.  See people outside of academia, who have vested interests, have no contact or awareness of what's going on.  Go to a soccer match, look at the parking lot, more than 50% of vehicles is SUVs, a signal that people are disconnected, because politician respond to where people's heads are.  How do we get education, and people concerned.

  • Big question, how to mobilize people to do the right thing
  • Don't know how to do it
  • Don't think answer is going to come from Washington
  • Interested in cultural influentials, media
  • Capture our imagination
  • Have seen this in civil rights movement, with a few people sharing a vision
  • Leadership:  where will we find it?  Maybe more from this room than elected officials

You need us.  Depressing that you're an unusual person to say that.  Experience as systems thinker, gets marginized all of the time.  Kenneth Boulding review that he had lost interest in economics.  

  • Take it as a compliment if traditional academia says I don't understand what you do.
  • Out of the box, at the cutting edge.

Historical perspective.  In the 1950s, International Geophysical Year, that started a lot of investigations, created 50 data centers.  Since then, other geophysical programs, and global biological programs, none which have done anything similar.  Nothing near the funding.  Funding towards physical studies.  Physical studies, we had precise measures.  IGY inaugurated because of instrumentation.  What is the hope of shifting the paradigm?  We don't have the mindset to allow the world view.

  • We're eroding our capacity to observe our world
  • Troubled, losing infrastructure, and we need to expand it
  • We're measuring the wrong stuff:  flows rather than stocks, e.g. fish left in the sea, or oil production rather than oil left
  • Not even getting to human side, understanding cultural norms
  • Game-changing, we're not keeping track, concerned
  • But at the same time, we have better ways to communicate and collaborate

At Saybrook, trying to support these efforts.  As we're talking to leaders of public agencies (water boards, air control boards, toxic substance), finding that they're faced with a huge agenda of water change, but they don't know how to collaborate well.

Global effects, not tied down to any community or any particular problem.  We don't get involved with normal people, as not making sense to them.  Need to break this down, put it on the ground, and do thousands of workshops, so that they can tell the experts what to do.

  • Individuals will have a wisdom that experts don't

2008/07/15 11:00 David Waltner-Toews, The Ecosystem Approach: Complexity, Uncertainty and Managing for Sustainability", ISSS

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

David Waltner-Toews, University of Guelph, Population Medicine

20080715_1100_ISSS_Waltner-Toews.jpg


Will be talking about a book that just came come out this month

Unfortunately, James Kay died

Group worked together on creating experiments, on learning how to deal with health issues and ecological issues

Diamond diagram:

  • Generating desirable and feasible futures
  • Ecological realities:  scientific side, constraints, types of soil, bacteria
  • What do want to see on this landscape?  Nature doesn't have preferences, we have preferences
  • Then loop of management and governance

Examples: many countries

Will talk about Nepalese example

Tapeworm in dogs, doesn't cause problems in dog

  • Comes out in poop
  • Find a wiggling grain like rice in poop
  • Eaten by others
  • Creates a cyst in animals
  • Butchers remove it, then feed to dogs
  • If people live with dogs, they'll get the cyst
  • Surgery, 20% will die

1991 water buffalo

  • Fire to burn hair off
  • Pigs wandering around, vultures, crows
  • Meat cut up, put on rickshaw, meat goes to hotel to feed tourists
  • Butchers don't waste much, consumers take home and trim off

1991-1994 intensive conventional investigation

  • Estimated infection 

Proposed solutions:

  • Slaughterhouse
  • Inspection
  • Keep house pets, kill stray dogs

5 years, nothing changed, something missed in the science

  • What are we missing?

Inappropriate theory --> inappropriate goals --> inappropriate action

Reducing the problem to fit the models

  • Out statistics can't handle it

Dogs are also community police and companions

  • Dogs watching temples

Butchers were providing services, but also carrying on family, caste and cultural traditions

  • Danish came in and built slaughterhouse, but cast a long shadow
  • Family businesses

Germans said could create garbage system, but collapsed, because multiple jurisdictions, caste, role of women

Fuel:  burning off hair, but also for heat

  • No petroleum, they deforest
  • Impacts ecosystem, erosion, river deltas
  • Girls who carry fuel, not in school, they serve someone else's purpose

Pass an animal health act?

  • Were at the beginning of a democracy moving
  • Were in crash and reorganizing phase
  • In butcher's shops, pictures of martyrs
  • Good time to organize, bad time to pass laws
  • Tenuous coalition of Maoists, government collapses

Holonaucracy

Systemic feedback with users

Scale and nested hierarchy

  • At what scale are decisions being made
  • How does one affect the other
  • Can you study and understand what's happening at different scales?
  • Whom do you trust?

Peruvian Amazon:  household level ... regional level ...

  • Different scales

Multiple perspectives was most difficult as a scientists

  • Pucallpa, for some decades, major economic associations saw it as a forest with a river running through it
  • Main source of protein was fish

How do we engage and prioritize perspectives?

  • Showing kids own poop under a microscope, makes it real for themselves

1994:  Systems thinking with participation

Initally, start with presenting issue

  • Ask about given history:  secondary records
  • Stakeholders, issues, governance
    • Rules, implicit and explicit
  • Collect people's stories, their narratives
    • e.g. bird flu:  economists, farmers, villages
  • To put them together, develop a systemic understanding
    • Part systems analysis:  key processes, temporal scales, 
    • Part systems synthesis:  scenarios for future and when they might occur, e.g. what would you like your grandchildren to say about you?
  • Collaborative learning and action
    • Engaged political decision makers
    • Is there a shared future?
    • Institution?
    • Implementation? Who changes garbage, slaughtering practices
    • Indicators have to emerge from process of engagement, certain indicators owned by certain people

Where can systems make a difference?

  • Who benefits from the system of investigation?
  • Certainly, for the investigators
  • But for the system being investigaged, and the children, the next generation?

Did this with a lot of information, before an ecosystem approach

  • Years later, put in public parks, started composting, built houses for squatters, built public toilets, built own enclosed slaughtering areas
  • Didn't need Denmark to come in, different scale
  • Stabilized river banks
  • New leadership, young guys in butcher association
  • In 6 months, young guys changed the neighbourhood

In 2001, royal family in Nepal self-destructed

  • Person became a king at 2001
  • Fight of Maoists
  • People came out in streets
  • Election, Maoists won, now trying to figure out
  • Had built local resilience, communities had meetings and continued during the turmoil

Changes understanding of the world

  • In 2001, no vultures in the trees, but 95% of vultures have died off, as pain killers used on cows that vultures ate
  • Decision making, governance, management and monitoring

What happened to the parasite?

  • Don't know
  • People in the community hadn't exercised this

Who cares if we make a difference?

Books:

  • The Ecosystem Approach, David Waltner-Toews, James Kay, Nina-Marie E. Lister
  • Integrated Assessment of Health and Sustainability of Agroecosystems, Thomas Gitau, Margaret W. Gitau, David Waltner-Toews

 

2008/07/16 11:00 Special Integration Group on Systems Applications in Business and Industry, ISSS Madison 2008

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Session chaired by David Ing

Three presenters

  • Doug McDavid (filling in a gap for Marianne Kosits, who cancelled last minute);  
  • Kambiz Maani;
  • Junyu Minegishi

Doug McDavid

What is a business that could have an architecture?

What is an architecture related to business?

Better term has already been co-opted by IT people:  would prefer enterprise architecture

  • Human social systems that have some economic developments

IT architectures, that have an enterprise class

Architecture:

  • 1. From Maturana, things intrinsically have an architecture, what is it composed of, what are the parts, what behaviours?  Structure and behaviour.
    • If I turn a tape recorder off, it will have changed the architecture of the tape recorder.
  • 2.  A representation of an architecture, blueprint, models
    • All models are wrong, but some are useful
  • 3.  Architecture as a discipline, creating things for a purpose, an existing phenomenon, or projected into a future

Examples of useful architectural views or models

  • Microscopic view of business, transactions and communications
  • Macro:  Viable systems models, 1 to 5, with communication levels, with strong recursion
  • Miller's living systems model
  • IBM Component Business Model
  • Ecosystem model of business, with definable enties don't exist in isolate, but in cooperation with each other, points to other paper, talking about social aspects of business, e.g. cultural architecture, e.g. boundary concepts

Discussion

Ben Durzel:  abstract architecture

  • Everything is forming and dying, and forming and dying

Hierarchy theory?

  • Yes, both in Beer and Miller
  • Micro level, thinking of Pask types of communications

Enterprise development instead of entrepreneurism

View of architecture as semantic, with ontological content

Architecture and organizations?

  • Maturana, architecture as the eye of a frog, the cognitive architecture of the eye taking in, and the tongue coming out to take a fly, which may not be a fly
  • Not going to get in a discussion whether that is design
  • We do design social systems:  charter, constitution
  • Institutional architecture

Maturation, e.g. company starts in the vision of the founder, then revolt of the board to throw out a CEO

Kambiz Maani

Linkage to structure and performance

Case study for a master's thesis

Dysfunction, internal competition

  • People driven towards performance indicators

Food and beverage company, supply chain

Systems thinking in a real organization, how effective is systems thinking in the real world?

Documented company in four-level Senge model:  mental model, patterns of behaviour, events

  • Documented what went wrong, e.g. fill rate
  • Traced to patterns of behaviour
  • What is people's mental model

Across 7 companies, behaviour change?

  • Before:  pointing fingers at other people
  • After half-day workshop:  realized a little selfish, created problems for self, more exposure to other parts of business

Language and gestures change:  drawing causal loops in the air

16 months later, has behaviour sustained?

  • Collaboration have continued
  • Performance sustained
  • Use systems thinking to maintain culture of empowered organization:  one number principle

Discussion

Performance measure?

  • Had one for each department

New measures?

  • Not an overhaul, people began to see their influence

Tools?

  • Novice level, warehouse level, so used causal loop modeling on paper, in workshop

Trust, if only person does the job, then everyone. Relationships change?

Do away with performance measure, just trust?

Mandated performance measures to suggested performance measures

Corporate performance linked to strategic plan?

  • No, scope was supply chain

Applying systems thinking model to every enterprise?

Junyu Minegishi

Tool to help quality management auditors

Differences in auditors' abilities

  • e.g. standard for corrective action

 

2008/07/17 09:05 David Hawk, "The Business Educators Dilemma: Teaching Analytics to those who Strive to Manage Systems", ISSS

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Intro by Gary Metcalf

David Hawk, Former dean of New Jersey Institute of Technology, Management, and professor of Architecture

20080717_0905_ISSS_Hawk.jpg


Major dilemma:

  • Much of what we teach is analytics, need systemics, but continue to teach analytics

Hope, but it's a bit tough

  • Possibilty time lag
  • Maybe reduction from 20 years to 2 to 3 years, from when you say something to when it has meaning

Confused education, came together in systems science in the mid-1970s

Engineering, architecture, planning, then systems in an business school

Bipolar teaching:  management and architecture

At school of management, became dean as a last ditch effort

  • Say teaching innovation, but not innovative
  • Human resouces low

In 2+ years, got 11 faculty (including tenured) to move on

  • Hired 5 new professors better than self
  • Started 5 new degree programs

Some faculty are against systems science

  • Don't know what it is, but it's dead

Now, back to a lower profile

Lecture to China State Owned Enterprise:  From Core Competences to Innovative Edges:  Why China should avoid the American model of development

Lecture on the Leibniz society:  A Faustian Dilemma: On Tolerating the Intolerable

  • Good questions

Lecture: Why we get the leaders we deserve

Am on the terrorists' watch list

Issues of interest

The end of science (Horgan, out of print)?  Science that was to replace religion became a religion, which is doing itself, because we're posing hypothesis that can't be tested

Preference for complexity

  • Like Kurt Lewin, but most people prefer Yogi Berra

Have been looking at the problem of systems science, and delay

  • Proposal to implementation, or even experimentation

Looking for differences that make a difference

Humans do like to be regulated

Human do like to be managed

Humans prefer being educated (being told assumptions) rather than learning (questioning assumptions)

Systems scientists have a problem, with the immortality management

  • Becker, denial of death:  people given a death certificate at birth
  • Most evil in the world is due to people's immortality management
  • Working on a second book when he died
  • Dilemma that we have to deal with

History of systems

  • 1971 Environment Impact Statements (EIS in U.S.), learned that they're a bad thing to do, although they're a good idea
  • Left country
  • 1974 entered a systems science program
  • 1975 in Sweden, found that Swedes were going to import the EIS, tried rationality which didn't work, then tried humour which worked

1977 3-volumes, Environmental Project:  Analytic Solutions in Search of Synthetic Problems

  • Using the problem to solve the problem, which makes things worse
  • Humourous study on how funny the U.S.
  • Interview the people who wrote the EPA
  • Funding by U.S. and Sweden, EPA withdrew, because inclusion of companies that were evil, and scope too comprehensive
  • Water quality act:  If trying to control a complex situation that no one will understand, need 1000 page document that no one will understand
  • Swedes write 25 pages
  • Enemy is central government and central management in companies
  • Conclusion:  U.S. is dirty, and will get dirtier
  • Constitutional system
  • Report went to OECD, Swedes used it to keep U.S. out of Europe
  • Banned from environmental research

1994, given $1M grant to initiate Energy Star homes, because dissertation was right

  • Anti-regulatory approach to get people to do the right thing
  • Founding builders, developers willing to do the right thing, but consumers weren't
  • Third year of project, gave back $333 people, as funded by air quality, and didn't include water and soil people

1986 conference at NJIT, invited neo-cons to give lectures on the future of warfare and the humanity

  • Some years later, they ended up in power:  Richard Pearl
  • Time lag isn't always good

Presidential candidate held a meeting at facility in Iowa

1991 organized an alternative meeting to Davos

  • Banned from WEF
  • Then asked to come to discuss a systems approach to international research
  • They thought it was too difficult, got 3 CEOs to study, whereas own study had 60 CEOs

2004:  Working with a 1.2 million person firm to do something different, moving from government to private

Cracks in 20th century management systems, and growing anger, that hasn't peack

House of business is intact, but there's something wrong with the orientation

Business is too closely associated to the American model, and Harvard

  • Strategy and strategy formulation as the root to most problems

Trying to shift from strategic thinking to relationship forming

Don't use strategy as a good, but instead strategy is deceit, which is originally definition

  • e.g. CEO giving talks:  different from customers, shareholders, .... all on different themes
  • Upsetting to business teachers

Differences that make a difference

Take people to interesting or controversial companies, instead of American companies

VW Resende plant in Brazil

  • No VW employers
  • Suppliers assemble the part
  • Feedback is quite direct
  • If car passes inspection, everyone is paid
  • If there's a mistake, no one gets paid
  • Raised the quality so much, shipped cars to Germany 
  • So successful that they didn't do anything again

Largest building on the world

Sol company in Finland

  • No managers
  • Employees loyal
  • Considered a crackpot

Students are hungry for systems thinking and systems approaches, but the faculty aren't prepared to deal with this

Experts council in Beijing, they decide who are the leaders of companies, mayors

  • Chairman Mao's right hand man
  • Like Lao-Tzu
  • Debate: general of army, secretary of part
  • Suspended lunch, battle over Chinese wine
  • Anarchism or fascism as a better form
  • They argued for control and regulation
  • Chairman did a drawing:  of course, natural regulation is best (self-management, self-control), but because in this world there are idiots, something stronger is sometimes required

gravelends.com

  • Putting money where my mouth is
  • Facility built without models or plans
  • Workmen were upset, as they've never built anything but 2 story boxes
  • Said at least there's no old structure
  • So put on old home in the middle to build around
  • Cost 40% less to construct

See movie:  Good night and good luck

[Questions]

What way forward?

  • As soon a got fired, 3 New York billionaires came to build a new city, in Newark
  • They now own 25% of downtown Newark, and will give New Jersey a city
  • Hired an idiot architect who thought all buildings should be white, trying to shift to light
  • Using at alternative materials, look at what Shimizu, who have been bringing wilderness back to the city

Having cited some interesting examples, why do others not emulate?

  • Nature of humans not to do it
  • Make fun of protection and security
  • Security mostly to hide the bad, not the good
  • Good examples are disruptive
  • Ego-centricity
  • Like working with companies that don't use patents
  • Teaching executive students, someone will be angry

2008/07/17 09:50 Bill Rouse, "Modeling & Managing Complex Systems: A Case Study of Healthcare Delivery", ISSS Madison 2008

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time duringthe meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Intro by Gary Metcalf

Bill Rouse, Georgia Institute of Technology, Industrial and Systems Engineering and College of Computing:

20080717_0950_ISSS_Rouse.jpg


Tennenbaum Institute:  cross campus

Work on one problem:  how do complex organizational systems change or not change

Looked at 200 companies

  • Of 100 companies in the Dow over a hundred years, only GE has lasted
  • Creative destruction is good for the economy, but not good for the company

Looking at American health system

50% of costs increases are due to technological innovation, how can we afford this

Complex adaptive systems

  • Clinton administration discovered that you can't deal with this through command and control
  • Large collection of entrepreneurs, no one in charge
  • How can we influence them?

Stakeholders and interests

  • Who takes risks?
  • Look at the impact of the health care system on health
  • Conclusion:  the health care system has 10% of influence, 40% of lifestyle, 40% is parents, 10% is environment

Economist article on healthcare

  • Last page (25) every dollar saved is somebody's income
  • This is why it's hard to change the system

Value chain on disease detection:  how many on the people?

  • How much spent not on research, but on improving research?  Cut out of budget
  • NIH putting all of money into medical research may not be the right place

Assuming physicians

  • Networks of networks, certifying positions
  • Complex social system

Try to map the system, map the market in healthcare

  • How many companies to get a cell phone?  6000 companies for this phone, and there's 6000 different ones for another phone

Retail marketplace, study limited to Fortune 1000

  • Retail is a system that manages the complexity for you

Telecom:

  • e.g. if computer doesn't work, a lot of questions about operating, etc., that people don't want to know

Healthcare

  • Probablistic model to understand state of a network
  • Given any random transaction, the state is the nodes of the network
  • How much information would have to be processed to calculate the complexity of the network?
  • Can create a complexity surface
  • Complexity of healthcare is 27 bits:  for any random consumer transaction, if wanted to know involved nodes, would have to ask a billion questions

Retail:  only half of companies in Fortune 1000

  • Retailers know how to manage complexity, to make it easy for consumers

Aerospace:

  • Airlines make taking a flight easy (although annoying)

Telecom is going through convergence with media

  • e.g. if watching news on tv, could grab tv onto cell phone, then throw onto car
  • Companies that reduce complexity for consumers will succeed

Healthcare

  • Consumer-directed healthcare, where people have choice, have an 8% adoption rate:  people want choices, don't want to have to be smart about the network

Two principles

  • We may not want to be innovative, but can be innovative in creating value for business
  • If not creating B2C value, B2B doesn't matter
  • The magnitude of B2C complexity reflects the market maturity
  • In order to decrease complexity to the end consumer, should increase complexity in the business where you can best manage it

Want to design complexity into a system in ways that we can manage it

  • Can manage design, development, manufacturing, sustainment
  • Can't manage economies, markets, competitors, end users

Enterprise agility

  • Used to focus on optimizing systems
  • It works well when the design envelope remains the case
  • Fragile when outside the design envelope
  • e.g. making Cadillac Escalade, except the market has change
  • In June, the sales at Toyota went down 20%, but up at Honda
  • Corollas not on the lot, Honda has flexible manufacturing, putting Accords and Civics on the same line

Another talk:  don't want agile systems or agile information, want agile decision-making, because otherwise don't have resources to take advantage

Management implications:

  • Value philosophy, focus on outputs, not inputs
  • e.g. focus on health outcomes
  • Why bother to have healthcare?  So that we have a productive workforce, not just so that we can feel bad for the sick?
  • Then, how to create most value?
  • Milliken Institute:  Cost of healthcare in the U.S., make diseases cost X, loss in productivity when people are sick is 5X
  • Maybe should increase healthcare spending
  • Total cost 19% cheques to healthcare provider, 48% due to absenteeism

Organizational behaviours, traditional system vs. complex adaptive system

  • Want to arrange incentives and inhibitions so that people do the right thing
  • Measure outcomes, don't have people tell you activities, which is inefficiency
  • Problem with managers is that they don't know what they want
  • Need to be agile to move to needs
  • Want personal commitments of individuals
  • Heterarchy over hierarchy, else lose time to market and innovation
  • Network is self-organized and morphing
  • Worked with IBM to look at social network, VP said doesn't relate to organizational chart, will start managing by the social network

If you're in right column, and pretend you're not, delusion

  • Wrote book on 13 organizational delusions

Information systems can help

  • What is the state of the system?
  • Not balance sheet and income statement, which is the core of scorecarding
  • Productive discussion in itself on what is the state
  • What could go wrong, and still have the decision make sense?  What could undermine?

Boeing Dreamliner:  materials in South Carolina, documentation in Italian

  • People didn't understand implications of what they're doing

Case study:  network models, from top-down

  • How to gain control of health care costs?
  • We need a learning health care system that gets smarter
  • How much does it have to learn?  What's the benchmark, how much smarter does it have to get?
  • 50% increase of cost in healthcare is due to technology:  MRIs, angioplasty, hip replacements
  • How can we afford the innovation?

More than 50% of the people have a mobile phone

  • Each person buys it themself

In the U.S., only one payer for healthcare

  • Would have a problem is there was only one payer for cell phones

Have technological innovation

  • Increases efficiency
  • Increases effectiveness
  • Decreases risk
  • This results in increased use
  • With improved care, people come back and do it again:  the average number of hip replacements is 3, get it early, then replace again later in life
  • Increased use --> increased expenditures

Simple models

Model 1:  If we increase cost at the same rate as increasing use

  • Would have to reduce cost per use every year, very aggressive targets
  • Model doesn't work
  • No way to achieve cost reductions in model
  • Doesn't reduce overall costs
  • Instructive, but doesn't take you much farther

Model 2: Production learning, e.g. cell phones, aviation

  • Every time double production, half the cost
  • If assume 5% growth in demand (modest), or 10% growth ...
  • The more demand, the cheaper it gets
  • A race between demand and sales
  • Demand is swamping efficiencies
  • If have 10% growth rate, just getting costs down 25%, but demand has quadrupled
  • Can't really get there, although can improve things
  • Doesn't suggest where learning is happening

Model 3:  Process model

  • Technology and labour, where technology costs are going down, but not fast enough
  • Supposed technology improvement at 70% is the target
  • Assume healthcare at same rate as GDP
  • If 5% growth rate
  • If have 15% growth rate and GDP is flat, need a 40% improvement in labour, which is extremely ambitious and haven't been seen before

Presented to medical community:  How good would you have to get?

  • Would have to be impressive

Practicalities:  how to limit growth of healthcare to GDP?

1.  Could limit the amount of use, e.g. only one hip replace

2.  Reduce cost of labour:  less labour per use

  • e.g. number of person hours per car
  • Nurse practitioners and assistant physicians instead
  • Self-service, e.g. reservation like airlines

Commonwealth foundation: 15 ways to bend the growth curve

  • Plays into learning models

Putting together a letter for the new president

  • 5th recommendation:  can't improve health care, unless improve education, since 40% of costs are related to lifestyle
  • Reduce tobacco use, obesity, then wouldn't have 10% to 15% growth curve
  • Seven recommendations reduce use rates
  • Nine recommendations reduce costs
  • Mayo:  80% fewer activities per patient, since all physicians are on salary, compensated for health outcomes
  • Mayo:  if come and work with a doctor, first physician you meet is responsible, even if it has nothing to do with their speciality, changed only if there's an explicit negotiated handoff

Conclusions:

  • Efficiencies required to gain are immense

We spend all money on clinical practices (people), but we should be spending some time on delivery operations (processes)

  • They think about their own units, e.g. MRI people think about MRI
  • Thinking about whole process give different perspective
  • Delivery operations happen in the content of system structure (organizations), who have budgets
  • Healthcare ecosystem (society), like to think it's private businesses, but there's lots of companies who are really public-private and attached to governments

What can we do?

Value: Either increase health outcomes or decrease the cost of outcomes

  • Processes
  • Our health care is used as a consumable
  • Growing up, value:  I'm better off if you're educated, and I'm better off if you're healthy
  • Now, the idea of public good has faded

Now, trying to take the network model, and make it more hierarchical, and look at how complexity is arranged at levels

Summary

  • Because healthcare is a complex adaptive system, can't do command and control
  • Can improve delivery by looking at processes
  • Was viewed as a technician, but now see engineers helping
  • Complexity of healthcare as 27 bits is only Fortune 1000, but it's instructive
  • Case study shows would have to do an amazing job of learning
  • National academy:  can we think of the education system as a system?
  • If can't fix K-12 education, can't fix the system
  • Kia (cars) located a plant in southwest Georgia, discovered that Georgia high school graduates don't have skills to do automobile assembly
  • Disappearing manufacturing jobs, no manufacturing:  they're high-tech jobs

Questions

Management vs. leadership.  What is leadership, and should it be farmed outside of organization?

  • This is one issue that we've been looking at
  • Retail industry has doubled in size, half of companies have disappeared, and profits haven't increased
  • Differentiation:  leadership, not just being able to articulate a vision, but leadership involvement, going out and walking around, being interested in being involved
  • Study of mobile enterprise, where people work where they area:  key variable of adoption of the technology and successful deployment is leadership
  • After it's been deployed, leadership is less important, because social network takes over
  • Leadership is focused on influencing the organization, not commanding it; setting values of the organization, getting involved, and showing the value of being involved
  • Not a leadership expert
  • Can't contract out leadership

Elderly, mothers and children lose out?

  • No, it's a time thing
  • Elderly, will see more involvement in the future
  • Last year of life could be seen as a net drain, but we all want good health care, and that's a result of being productive for the rest of life

Mayo Clinic negotiating handoff with the system.  Assume life threatening disease, e.g. prostate cancer, no health care worker.  Who can help to make the decision?

  • Experience with integrated information system, had confusing symptoms, turned out to be a B-12 deficiency, all doctors had all of the same information, including results within speciality
  • More collaborative
  • Don't think that there will be a physician where one person understands everything

40% of diseases could be prevented with improved lifestyles.  Possible to work within the health silo, improves outcomes.  Argue that could improve outcomes further, if had user-centric design, where users have input into income, employment, improving systems from below.  Evidence-based policies from below.

  • Book subtitle:  human-centred design
  • IBM asks:  how should we solve this?  Put 11-year-olds on this, have created a game, hope to open up the game soon
  • To meet the needs of a health care professional, the game is too complicated for the layman
  • Game playing can help with health care

Manchester U. project on flexibility.  Looking at network orchestration.  Definition of orchestration?

  • Study a few years ago, compared symphony, jazz, puppetry
  • Orchestration depends on the art
  • The way the leader works is different
  • In theatre, the leader orchestrates during rehearsals, but the during the show, the play is given to the cast
  • In symphony, the leader stays involves
  • Don't have a definition of orchestration, but have studied different ways of doing it
  • Much more mentoring

Individual players working for the system?

  • Happens over time, have to deal with the status quo
  • Now, looking at how the U.S. government spends money
  • When an operating cost versus an investment?
  • e.g. supposed can reduce cost by $100 billion later, but costs $5 billion now?  Government only has balance sheet, no income statement
  • How can we get people to think about investments different by operating costs?
  • Giving talks, reviewing legislations, lots of little things
  • Inhibition:  shouldn't kill people
  • Playing the game:  don't spend anything
  • Privacy regulations also impact health information systems

2008/07/17 11:20 Doug McDavid, Sociable Technologies for Enterprising Sociality, ISSS Madison 2008

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time duringthe meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Intro by Gary Metcalf

IBM Almaden Research Center, Executive Research Consultant

20080717_1120_ISSS_McDavid.jpg


Coming into an era of supporting social with technologies

The medium is the message

People are projecting themselves:  Erving Goffman, presentation of self in everyday life

  • We're sort of driving people out of system
  • We've been treating people as costs, rather than engines in the creation of value

Long wave:  Carlotta Perez

  • We're in the second phase of the fifth wave

We're in an era of service dominance

Enterprises as autopoetic systems

  • May or may not be living, but they're definitely autopoetic
  • Businesses are systems
  • At the heart of enterprise is human desire, and the fostering of well-being
  • Enterprise as a "purposeful or industrious undertaking"

Enterprises have characteristics of living systems

Architectural viewpoints

  • Maturana's term on "dynamic architecture", unpublished, but on web
  • We can use the idea of dynamic architecture in a social sense
  • At any point of time, everything has an architecture, which includes the structure and behaviour

There are many socially-focused dimensions on business architecture

  • Focused primarily on social aspects
  • Korzybski:  whatever you say a thing is, it is not

One type of social architecture is the org chart:  talks about people and relationships

  • Limited and changable

Most often used and pervasive architectures are process and procedural models

Semantic architecture:  meaning is a key way of understanding

Brand architecture:  marketing people talk about this

Levels of granularity

Viable systems model as a macro-architecture

Need more structural coupling: between institutional architecture, the brand architecture, communities of practice

Virtual world games

Virtual world:  artifactual use, and actual use

Future of technology isn't marketing

Artifactual use:  programs in world, where they take a feed from the Blue Gene supercomputing world, doing protein folding

Structural coupling

[Questions]

Old guy.  Second Life taking away from real life.

  • Old guy, too
  • Compelling
  • New Media Consortium has run 6 days conferences
  • Not as good as being in person, but it's better than teleconference or chat room

Have a 12-year in Club Penguin.  Safety?  Sucked her in so much, that disconnected from real life.

  • Lot of research going on, although focus is mostly business
  • Also got sucked in
  • Now want an office in a virtual world, where people could stop by.
  • Not to say that there's not downsides.
  • Second Life has a different grid for teens

South Australia policy, Just Ask Once.  Services, more interactive.  Security

  • Firewall, issues.
  • At IBM, we're not doing things on the Linden Labs server

2008/07/17 13:30 Special Integration Group on Systems Applications in Business and Industry, ISSS Madison 2008

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time duringthe meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Session chaired by David Ing

Three presenters

  • Johnnie Pourdehnad
  • Takefumi Nakamura and Kyoichi Kijima
  • Shankar Sankaran

Johnnie Pourdehnad

Trying to synthesize across four things:

1. Business model

  • With Ackoff, were working at GM on business models with Peter Drucker and Adrian Slywotsky
  • Value migration, creating and capture value
  • At Ackoff Center, took companies cited by Slywotsky, were looking into their processes

2. Open innovation

  • Henry Chesbrough

3. Design thinking

  • Have been applying Ackoff's idealized design
  • Lately, it's like a new discovery
  • Not legitimate until HBR published on design thinking in their June issue
  • When you put people into design thinking, they think about solutions, rather than problems
  • The designerly ways of knowing, Nigel Cross

4. Enterprise 2.0

  • Using social software for collaboration
  • Business people first asked about control issues
  • In Internet, domain of emergence

Why are companies not combining the four?

In the application of idealized, key role by facilitators

  • Need divergent thinking, and then convergent thinking
  • Thinking of getting thousands involved
  • Success in learning spaces

[Discussion]

Facilitation

Design thinking: if more complex, have to focus more on process, because can't evaluate the outcome.  

  • Not rehashing
  • Difference from CSCW

Who has mandate to design

Blog people and wiki people

Innovation jams

Design of inquiring systems:  hard to get inductive consensual and sweep in at the same time

Management needs to learn about a different attitude

Coaching:  gap

  • Creating a dialogue space and container to support design thinking
  • Need trust, some balance between control and freedom

Facilitating, if in one modality, will get stuck

  • Haven't dealt with relational dynamics, group psychology

Who are you writing for?  Different answers for different people

  • No absolute models, corporate culture has to be respected

Takefumi Nakamura and Kyoichi Kijima

How can organizations learn to change mental models?

  • Systems safety
  • Used systems thinking in IT engineering
  • Two guiding ideas
  • 1. Jackson system of systems
  • 2. Categorizing 

Jackson:

  • Nature of the participant:  unitary, plural, coercive
  • Nature of the system: simple or complex

Classifying systems failure into three categories:

  • 1. Failure of deviance from standard, e.g. ISO, captures well
  • 2. Failure of communicaiton or interface:  misjunction
  • 3. Failure of evolution: failure of foresight

Looking at ISO, etc., they're all restricted in unitary areas, no mechanisms to get out

  • Try to apply dynamic model in the plural domain
  • Jackson says dynamic in unitary domain, but introduce systems boundary

3 archetypes: 

  • 1. Complacency
  • 2.
  • 3. Fix the failure

Learning in IT area, 3 solution archetypes

  • Absolute versus than organizational measures
  • Disjunction in communicating multiple stakeholders:  Japanese society is highly reliable, so tacit communication may cause system failures, should be more explicit
  • Enlarge the system boundary as much as possible

Systems dynamics models are powerful, because can see to change organizational mental model

[Discussion]

Study of computer system failures

Failure of evolution?  Beyond abstraction, know by building system

NASA Challenger disaster

Learning before, learning during, learning after

Structural problem:  most organizations don't value failure

  • Nature does accept failureu

There are learning and adaptive systems, e.g. aviation

  • Weick:  low probability, high impact
  • After action reports

Federal departments:  all under business pressures, except defense, which has contingencies, but they have excess funding

Failure in U.S. get a second chance, in Austria, they're out

Shankar Sankaran

Soft systems thinking embedded in action research

  • Action, and conduct research (critical reflection)
  • If action takes place, more informed action

Manage used different methods

SSM: Developed through action research, by Peter Checkland, as the hard systems approach is unsuitable for ill-structured problems

  • Original a 7-step model
  • Later included cultural analysis and systems analysis
  • Practitioners use it, to become a process:  mode 2 way of knowing

Two case studies in the papaer

Diagnostic models for military

  • Use SSM, dialectic (slightly different from 7 steps), differentiating between immersion: action, critical reflection
  • Software developer drove the vehicle

Hospital IT system

  • Psychotherapist did research
  • Thought would use SSM, but found action research used instead with SSM as a background

Connection between SSM and action research

  • Checkland says if you do action research without a declared model, may not be rigourous

Problem:  continuously learning, when you doctoral research, have a deadline, when to close?

  • Have we learned enough about the system to close the study?

[Discussion]

Drive to have a quantitative and qualitative?

Realiability of qualitative

Balanced scorecard is an action research approach

Economists

Tacit assumptions on stability and predictability

West:  ask the same question twice and get the same answer

  • East: why ask the same question twice, it's rude

360-degree view of reliability

Ethics of research

Modeling about probabilities; design is about solutions and contingencies

Rosen: modeling relation

Modeling complexity? Can't model it

KISS versus Keep It Complex, Smart

 

2008/07/17 15:30 Special Integration Group on Systems Applications in Business and Industry, ISSS Madison 2008

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time duringthe meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Chaired by David Ing

Two presenters

  • Allenna Leonard
  • Jerome Galbrun and Kyoichi Kijima (

Allenna Leonard

Viable systems model

Symbiosis:  No exchange

Some obligate:  they won't live otherwise

Luminescent bacteria in squid, let hosts see in the dark

Equivalent in business?

  • The arts
  • Soft power empires
  • Trading nodes
  • Venice wasn't a predator, although people who came to trade might feel like prey

Gobi fish can see, shrimp can't; shrimp can dig holes for both

Sponges and crabs

Business applications:

  • Shops gathering in a mall
  • Nature doesn't have waste, it's an input into something else

Where might this fail?  Coupled, either loosely or tightly

  • Have a lot of relationships only coupled by money
  • Social injustice can lead to instability

Supply chain could be important, as symbiotic

Human animal coupling: early human enjoy company of dogs, and dogs provide defence and policing with perceptual acuity

  • Combining strengths
  • Potential in business relationships

[Discussion]

Intrigued by example of the shopping mall, not a good example

  • Takes more energy than it provides
  • Rotation of businesses going in and out of business

Bringing people into a market isn't the same as imposing something

  • Symbiosis as an enhancement of variety

Symbiosis versus mutual cooperation?

  • Tighter coupling, means living together, often requirement for survival
  • Mutual cooperation is voluntary

Implication?  More organic development

  • Could enhance viability, due to redundancy
  • Biological examples provide resilience
  • e.g. algae does photosynthesis, hydra

Examples from nature:  not viable alone

Parasitic

  • Mutualism, commensuralism, parasitism

Businesses are all voluntary

Kropotkin, concerned with Darwin, wrote mutual aid

  • Enemies lie down together, depends on environmental conditions

Symbiotic development as a business direction?

Jerome Galbrun and Kyoichi Kijima

Deep dive on healthcare

Business oligopolies as complex systems

  • Interactions with institutions
  • Interactions drive technological regime changes

Context: big players (oligopolies) -- how I can grow faster than others

Systems approach: emergence of a super-player

How should one firm know better than another?  Managerial cognition

  • Super-player is able to do the right selection

Managerial cognition from Herbert Simon, boundedly rational

  • Role of manager is in being in the right network to get the innovation

Would like to do some more research on coevolution and coproduction

[Discussion]

Adaptability?

Keystone species?

Directed correlation in healthcare industry

2008/07/18 09:05 Devin Wixon, "Using Systems to Clean Up Messes: Complexity, global client change and soil carbon cycling"

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Intro by Gary Metcalf:  Tim Allen, next president

Devin Wixen, winner of the Vickers Award


The big picture:  dealing with post-normal, complex issues

Closet realist hiding out in the lab

  • Care about application
  • Removed words "narrative" versus removing word "reality" as it doesn't exist

The point of studying complexity is to make things simple

Will talk about current struggles

Using systems

  • 1. Start with a mess.  Pick with an important, fundable one
  • 2. Try to clean it up.  At worst, multivariate statistics
  • 3. Fail

This is how reductionist thinkers come to system

Soil microbial communities are complex:

  • Bacteria, protozoa, actinomycetes ...

More carbon stored in soil than all of vegetation and atmosphere

  • Turning up temperature, soil microbes become faster in activites, will create more carbon dioxide than if all of us went out to buy Hummers

Potential positive feedback loop:  global climate change --> increased soil respiration --> global climate change

Proliferation of research, some funded, but not good narratives

  • Most researchers agree important
  • Agree we don't have consensus
  • They call it a web of interacting factors

Research question:  why can't we answer this question?

A good mess

  • Controls, drivers
  • Make it tough to observe
  • Throw in human beings

Complicated by scales

  • e.g. day vs. night, soils return heat, but then look over years

Why come to systems theory?

  • Want to get salient factors
  • Equivalent to framing the question

Used by SSM, modified by Allen & Hoekstra 1992

From systems hierarchy ...

  • Need several levels of analysis for adequate descriptoins
  • Take subjectively seriously

Giampietro 2003:  Making things more complicated does not help when dealing with complexity

  • e.g. why would someone trudge through systems biology if they didn't have a reason
  • Carpenter:  Sending a space shuttle to Mars is complicated.  Parenting is complex.

Struggles:

  • Dual audience issues:  one audience in soil, and one audience in systems
  • Dual paradigm issues: Todd Bowers described realist vs. constructivist
  • Translating Rosen

2008/07/18 09:25 Jennifer Wilby, "Complexity and Public Health Policy", ISSS Madison 2008

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Intro by Tim Allen

Had sent Tim's paper quite early, asked if she had read it

Now a presentation on systems content


Content partially from Ph.D. dissertation

Was looking at emerging infectious diseases

  • Interest in international health, and its management
  • Had started masters looking at waste management

As a Ph.D. student started out thinking about tilting at windmills

  • Started to critique the major international health organizations
  • Used hierarchy theory from Tim Allen's work in San Jose State, complexity and systems content
  • Found functionalist frameworks and more interpretive frameworks of hierarchy theory

CDC:  Infectious and parasitic diseases are as much as cardiovascular and cancer together

  • This isn't a third world issue, it's happening in USA, Japan, and now coming into Europe with West Nile
  • Also SARS, the travel of a few people, the speed of transmission makes it a world problem

People working in complexity theory now don't know about von Bertalanffy

  • Looked at complexity of disciplines, 300 to 400 years ago, even before Boulding
  • Divided into the functionalist frameworks, e.g. Boulding, compared with interpretitive, observer-driven approach (e.g. Allen) where you start with the boundary, and look in
  • Hierarchy theory started from the idea of the great chain of being, from the rocks to the angels ... until the 16th and 17th century
  • Then the revolution of the individual coming up, having as much knowledge and value as church
  • 18th Century in Comte's first work, followed by Durkheim and Freud on ideas of inter-relationships

Comte 1937:  Hierarchy of disciplines

Von Bertalanffy 1968, hierarchic order to the world, static frame

  • An addition to Boulding's skeleton

Lancelot Whyte 1969 noted Newtwon, Lamber, Fourner and Clrlier also used a static hierarchical concept

Boulding 1956:  Looking for a general theory of systems

Used hierarchy to look at infectious diseases, wanted to know whther interpretist or hierarchical gave better views

Boulding, Skeleton of Science

Definition of risk factors, at levels:  host, agent, transmission, environmental

  • Then what disciplines are need for each
  • Map to Boulding's skeleton

Found that policies only address Boulding's levels 1 to 4, they're reactive, and don't address social, political and cultural issues

Surveilllance recommendations:

  • Single network for all agencies on the same levels of analysis
  • New methods, new ways of storing

Health promotion and education recommendations

  • Individual and social concerns
  • Refocus education to teach public health

Proposed model: research topic --> policy

Applied research recommendations:


  • Expand range of disciplines
  • Approach need to incorporate all disciplines

Learned:  a complex system is defined when more than one level of analysis is reuqired for its adequate description

Kolasa at McMasters:  Have to work with the perspective of the whole

[Questions]

Epidemiology studies, when people look at risk factors (e.g. Ebola) often poor underpaid miners eating bush meat.  No one asks why miners are there, usually Anglo-American.  Risk factor at those scales are often ignored.  Having identifed those, it covers areas of responsibility.  Argument in Canada, that it might come to on a plane.  Not seen as demands that we put on a system (as consumers).  Not sure how to put this into the system, it's not analytical.

  • Yes, came across that issue.
  • Changes, e.g. trucking highway that helped distribution of HIV
  • How to work at a high enough level
  • Have to work top-down, and bottom-up

Incorporating and drawing on multiple disciplines.  Interdisciplinary approach.  Now some think transdisciplinary.  But then who is our audience?

  • As working with funding issues, they say that they want multidisciplinary / interdisciplinary / transdisclinary, but then reviews by disciplinary people makes funding difficult

Use of the word hierarchy.  In bottom 4 levels, hierarchy doesn't have any ideological considerations.  At the higher social levels, does have ideological implications.  Suggest using different words.

  • Yes, lot of words have the issue:  hierarchy, holon

2008/07/18 09:50 Tim Allen, "Hierarchies over time: Hierarchy theory in relation to ecological economic theory of return

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

(continuing session)



Impetus from Jim Gustavson, who will be speaking later

  • Have vertical hierarchies, but what about horizontal hierarchies ... which are changes over time

Have coauthors, Joe Tainter, plus undergrads

Take ideas of high gain and low gain from ecological economics, and take a look over time

Introduce some bare bones to hierarchy theory

  • There is scaling, but also some other significance
  • Power:  keep straight very messy systems
  • Biota --> community --> species
  • Can look at the same material system, but look at thing in a different foreground
  • Then evolution doesn't matter (to an ecosystem)
  • Process ecosystem --> carbon storage --> tree bole
  • Tree bole are separated in tree in the biota view, whereas separate in the process ecosystem

Classical hierarchy (which annoys me) if fast to slow and wide to narrow

  • Used by Buzz Holling
  • There's some stuff that is long and fast, and slow and narrow
  • e.g. English channel influenced by earth's rotation:  20 miles could mean 70,000 years
  • e.g. corridors separating the flora from Asia and the flora from Australia (which is similar to South America, as both have marsupials)

Another issue, looking at things at different levels

  • Herbert Simon:  the world is not decomposable, but nearly decomposable
  • A weak connection at one level becomes a strong connection at another level

Central problem:  hierarchies require different level of analyses, and they change over time

Biological and social systems have anticipation:  models

  • Foal knows its mother, because previous foals and models come from the essence (after Rosen)
  • The foal is a realization of the past embodied in its essence
  • The essence does not exist independent of the observer's model
  • Why underlies dogs?  It's dogginess
  • If Australians had taken over the world, we would have been talking about Tasmanian lions, which look like dogs
  • Dogs and cats separated 55 million years ago; at 25 million years ago, cats went one way, and hyenas went another:  dogginess?

Essence, with realization of an essence via DNA

  • DNA is merely the means for realization, it isn't the essence
  • Similarly, in social systems ...
  • Presidency has an essence, with a realization of essence, which changed the presidency, electing Jimmy Carter as the first fundamentalist presidence

Brain

  • Actually external gradient, burning up brain
  • Rate dependence versus rate independence
  • Coded planning element is rate independent:  we need a plan

Protein synthesis constructs metabolism

  • Organism moves forward with narratives
  • Biologists observe the story, and tell us
  • End product of science is not predictions, it's narratives
  • Narratives don't have to be internally consistent, model have to be internally consistent
  • If want to talk about anything important, can't do it with models
  • Cycle means become more efficient

Can speak in terms of causes

  • Rate independent, and rate dependent
  • Thus need hierarchy theory

Vertical versus hierarchy

  • Over time, the changes switch controls between scalar hierarchies and ...

Economist like average returns:  things get more expensive, and we hardly ever run out of stuff

  • Marginal returns:  economists don't run this over time
  • When run this, people quite at lower levels

Marginal return and complexity

  • Will run through resource, and then switch to something else, e.g. first trees, then coal that requires digging up
  • Russia will be a country of great progress, and always will be, because they didn't run out of wood, whereas Britain did

New hierarchy emerges, move to high gain

  • Otherwise use the old resource more efficiently, move to low gain

A system is high gain if it takes in high level resources and burns them up, e.g. nuclear power

  • World gives nuclear energy fuel rods:  high gain
  • But if remember that it takes mining, it's really low gain

High gain uses ready made quality resources

  • Low gain gathers and refines low quality resources
  • High gain works on steep resource gradients
  • High gain is ephemeral
  • High gain reamins in local hot spots, e.g. Romans coming in (over Germans), changing identities, but problem with raping and pillaging is that you can only do it once, then have to world real time
  • When the gold is gone, have to generate sunshine in real time ... which is called taxation
  • High gain is self-organized, low gain is planned

High gain sucks up resources as need, low gain increases efficiency:  hitchhiking in Wales, had hills as 13 year old, but have since been used up

  • High gain is impressive in energy capture, low gain is impressive in high organization:  Florence switched from wool underwear to cotton underwear, which led to rags that could be used of paper (which led to the printing press)
  • High gain can only be managed from context because of self-repair, e.g. can't win the war on drugs, should make cocaine cheap, which would reduce the gradient (although government wouldn't have the will to spend money gained from cocaine)
  • Low gain can be managted by manipulating the parts, no self repair

Jevon's paradox:  in the 1880s, increase in the efficiency of steam engines

  • Improvement from 1800s where 1% efficiency, but then steam engines powered by coal used for cotton ginnies
  • Increasing number of highways reduced to SUVs, but increasing the price of gasoline makes it inefficient

Leaf cutting ants:  don't eat leaves, they rot them with fungus

  • Food ants get the good stuff, which is competitive
  • Fungus farmers go after feces, which is low energy, unless you have fungus, in which case it's jet fuel
  • Inside every low gain phases, there's a new high gain
  • Today, saw a lot of leaves, didn't see a lot of caterpillar feces
  • Lots and lots of leaves
  • Small colonies that grow into mature colonies and become pests
  • In addition to raising fungi, there's also energetics

Evolution --> --> 

Origins <-- <--

Integration 

Contradiction / complementary

  • ... which is what hierarchies give you

Termites

  • Could have a strategy of eating good wood, leading to a high gain collapse
  • Could go a different direction on a prudent course, eating bad wood, for a low gain collapse
  • High gain collapse of Roman republic, versus low gain collapse of Roman empire (i.e. 60% taxation)
  • Alternative, super-low gain:  when wood has decayed into soil, then the memory of colony function now resides in individuals, e.g. gut flora, there's so little for them to work on, they need to work on
  • Low gain termites live in the tropics, because they couldn't survive in a winter

Gunderson and Holling 2002 Panarchy shows high-gain low-gain

  • Etruscans become Romans, which collapse
  • Italians aren't Etruscans, which have memory
  • In the new upper level structures of organization are the lower memories
  • Two memories:  thermodynamics, and encoding by different people
  • EU is similar to Rome .. it's part of the memory

Different ways to look at dogs

  • Multiple ways of observing

Hierarchies reveal different meanings at different levels of observation

If respond to changes in level of hierarchies, then can move without getting lost

High and low gain applies to historical, economic, psychological, political and ecological systems

[Questions]

Economists are right, we don't run out of resources, they get more expensive; ecologists know that things that died

Rate dependence.  Ontological versus epistemological pursuit

  • Howard Pattee knew about rate dependence
  • Can study emergence
  • Social systems generate new structures, could be physical, but happen to be biological
  • Physical systems are high gain
  • Problem with using entropy, is that's what left when it's all over:  want to use exergy
  • Gasoline isn't good if your transportation is a donkey cart
  • Look at James Kay's web site, it cleans up the issue of entropy

2008/07/18 11:05 Jim Gustafson, "Vertical and Horizontal Scaling Strategies to Avoid Destruction in the Modern Contest"

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Jim Gustafson, M.D., Professor of Psychiatry, University of Wisconsin-Madison:



Take two regions of energy capture, and go farther

Simpler version of diagram:  if then, what about us

  • Most of us work on systems that work on the lower part of the curve:  we put in a lot of energy
  • It's harder to get output

Robert Louis Stevenson, Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

  • Not atypical, low energy capture
  • Dr. Jekyll can't keep it up, he gets tired
  • Cycle, Mr. Hyde bursts out without restraint
  • People in low gain energy, busting out in high gain energy
  • Signals depression and anxiety, then rage to take more resources

Watch Clockwise movie:  high school with a control tower over his school

  • Most successful headmaster in England, as they round him up

If only two possibilities of low gain with a cycle of high gain, we would be a problem

A third region, where gives more energy than taking away waht we've got

  • A transitional field, book this fall, The Core Instrument and Key ...
  • Balance between exterior field and interior field
  • In the transition field, all beautiful pursuits:  love, art, music
  • Many don't know how to obtain this

Need a vertical and horizontal scale

  • Ability to locate a small enough scale, to get some independence from wearing oneself out, and a rhythm that isn't perterbed in space
  • Horizontal scale is time

Where can we find a region?

  • Maggi and Strogatz
  • Varied oscillation
  • Unstable region in the middle
  • The tighter the coupling, and the lower the frequency, you lock synchrony
  • Have incoherence when little coupling, and lots of frequencies
  • Region in between:  coupling somewhat loose, and frequencies not too great

Alexander and Globitz similar to Maggi and Strogatz

Middle area tuned like a musical instrument

In between an incoherence that is like a breadth

Walter Freeman:  like a breath, studied rabbits, and when breath is drawn in, system is loosely coupled, open to odours -- pulse motor

  • In the out breath, sensors link into one odour, e.g. carrots

In human body, can lock top-down (brain as one), and bottom up (pulse mode), and in between have an interesting region

  • If mother watches everything, constant worry
  • Play is in the middle region, randomness
  • Gilligan, 10 year old girls:  come into synchrony from other girls, become locked in or out of peer groups
  • Every year would take girls to museum, ask them about pictures of men
  • At age 11, would say they don't know what they think, then age 12 doubled, by age 15, didn't know anything
  • Worked against a steep gradient

Girl survived mother, put her into a pack, put her into medical school, get a problem

  • She'll have a list of things to do
  • Residents used to have packs of white cards with things to do, not computers
  • She's so coupled to mother with teenage worries, and packs, and then reading off cards, then all of these other things they have to learn

Psychologists are all upset, because they do everything by rote, and don't talk with students

  • If ask why is going on in dreams at night, too incoherent

How to find the third region?

  • At sleep, mind disconnected from synchrony, drop into the night sea of  ...
  • Poincare, mathemetician, chapter in Giesel:  when working on a proof, would go for a walk, and then dream the proof
  • He called this region a sieve:  selection of enumerable possibilities
  • If can use the middle region, can dream a picture of the geometry that are embedded in: non-linear geometry
  • Have worked with patients showing them the geography of energy capture

Had a dream of my sieve

(Drawing on whiteboard)

Dreamt was in training to be a drug company representative

  • In department conference room, but another long table
  • Beginning of training with an exercise, where all trainees were supposed to rush to a table to write down a list of references, faculty representative
  • Standing around, thought completely left of this
  • Second scene:  standing on hill, watching the trainees in a race that would come down a hill, and then a spurt uphill
  • Led by a drug company repesentative
  • Colleague was on his tail
  • Reminded of training in San Francisco, but this was on West Washington Avenue, towards the Capitol
  • End in entropy
  • This is a dream of hierarchy over time
  • Poincare:  can dream of own hierarchy over time
  • High hopes, but dream to low gain
  • Self has a hill to stand on, and can see the trajectory over time
  • Had a dream in 1996 about a French explorer who had a hat, attacking the train line going from Poughkeepsie to New York
  • At that time, thought could exhaust self in New York, now not attacking it

Second dream:

  • In San Francisco, as the sun was setting over the Pacific
  • Had to go from South San Francisco, passing all the way to north (Marin County), passing through many military bases
  • Led by a 16-year old boy
  • A map of self as young resident, struck by shallowness of everything
  • Esalen Institute, south of San Fran, everyone had a method for everything
  • Was facing being drafted to Vietnam
  • In San Fran, was being taught by psychoanalysts in control mastery theory
  • Guided by a 16-year old boys, who was me
  • Father sold cars from Ford, low gain activity, could only make a little money, had been taught about low gain energy
  • All of these schemes promise high gain energy, but end up as low gain

How do we get out of this?

  • The English sentence
  • 5000 years old, Indo invasian at 2000-3000 BC
  • Everything in west is high gain energy capture
  • Greatest writers have written about high gain energy capture:  tragedy, Tolstoy
  • Death of a Salesman is about low gain, Beckett coming down in low gain

Vincent Sculley, Yale

  • Mycene, where Agamenmon's tomb is, where the Trojan War emerged
  • Non-linear geometry, Shelley's portrait of it
  • Sculley's decription of the place
  • Mycene a seat of pride and power.  Holiest place, strongest in magical sense, and dread.  Pass from the north, two peaks of mountain.  Fortress in the middle.  Multiple images.  Horns.  King puts self in citadel in center.
  • Everything in Greek tragedy is about the balance

Horizontal scale

  • Leopold
  • Time and way to protect it
  • Birds first make sounds at 4 a.m.

[Questions]

Can we only get this state when we're sleeping, or also in semi-sleeping state?

  • Absolutely
  • Hypnogogic space:  if you don't jump out of bed, you're in the transitional region
  • Make notes before sitting up, will get beautiful pictures of geography
  • Countless regions of getting there:  e.g. tennis, in a crouch, dancing, making love

Can't stay in the semi-sleeping state too long, it's uncomfortable

  • Have to also bow to the need for energy capture
  • Going to work, energy forward, but have to hold back as well

Entropy, exergy, exploring human relationship with thermodynamics.  Conservation of energy?

  • Interesting things happen not with a question, but in conversation.
  • Whole talk about conservation of energy
  • Using the third region to allow energy to be drawn up inside us
  • Playing tennis, coach said standing up straight was cutting off energy top from bottom
  • That's conservation of energy, more vitality than less

Beyond systems science to systems seeing, systems being.  Vicker's appreciative system.  Moving from probable to possibilistic.

2008/07/18 12:00 UW Madison, Botany Department: Tim Allen's Sandpit: Megan Pease, Peter Allen, Devin Wixon, Steve Thomforde

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Tim Allen

  • Since we're here in Madison

[Megan Pease:  Inside the Black Box of Time Allen's lab]

What the same when everything is different?

We all apply systems theories

  • Conversations at many scales
  • Sandbox, get together with many people
  • Conferences
  • Find problems / paradigm changes

Lots of personal relationships

  • Some intellectual vulnerability, try out new ideas an applications

Each have found an interesting phenomenon

  • Also some urgency
  • Numerous variable
  • Lots of perspectives

Common themes

  • Interdisciplinary research
  • Before you take tools out of other contexts, need to be aware of underlying assumptions
  • Have to identify the role of the observer

Own research question:

  • How can UPS design flexibility into their system, allowing adaptation to a changing context?  Investigation of alternative fuels
  • Found multiple replacement options

[Steve Thomforde] 

A Systems Perspective on Restoring Ecological Resilience:  A Proposal to Shift the Current Historic Climax - Community Restoration Model to a Future Oriented Ecosystem Based Model

In 2 weeks, going to North American Prairie Conference

Beside parking lot, supposed to be an infiltration basin, to take in rain

  • Rain takes soil particles with phosphorous, into Lake Mendoza, destroys algae
  • Infiltration basin is supposed to soak it into ground, but it's failing
  • 40% sand, 40% compost, 20% dirt
  • Sorts water, creates positive feedback, creates likes in sealable forms
  • More plants create more detritus, seals a system, until we have a pond
  • The pond fills up

People from State of Wisconsin asking:  what are we going to do?

  • Have 90 projects with infiltration basins, including mayor's house
  • $31,000
  • Sustainable for how long, and how much?
  • Had plant people (want a wetland) and engineers (want sucking it)
  • Systems approach:  want more sand, because we want to increase an ecosystem function
  • Can't grow plants?  Grow a beach community
  • The new design:  will come in with 80% sand, 10% loams, 10% dirt

[Peter Allen]

Master's student, finishing up research

High gain and low gain systems, related to transportation infrastructre, and how it impacts community development

Looking of pre-WWII low gain system

  • To increase gain, needed a lot of reorganization
  • Railroad
  • Interstate system after cheap oil

Animated map

  • Wisconsin has lots of resources, used to built Chicago, plus the agricultural as prairie converted to farms
  • Rail lines on lines, versus smaller roads in a network, emergent into interstate system

Rail into town means a stop into town

  • Interstate, bypass towns

Looking at Evansville, was on railroad, had own opera house, tiny town at turn of century

  • When interstate went through, they weren't on it
  • Starting to return now
  • Low gain before WWII, transition to high gain economy, now coming back
  • Evansville is on the rise again, it has the only soybean crushing plant, because it still has the railroad
  • Low gain imposes itself as top down, as only infrastructure
  • As we're moving from high gain to low gain, need to find an emergent infrastructure that isn't totally top-down in transition

[Devin Wixon]

What's the same when everything is different?

People working on bigger, theoretical, epistemological issues

It's because don't know what people are talking about, that the system succeeds

On the same level of anarchy

  • Recalcitrant carbon in soil

Energy ROI:  what you spend ...

  • Labile / active soil
  • Recalcitrant / passive soil:  95%
  • Global warming means microbes switching
  • It won't help putting carbon into soil, if microbes put it back out

Can we create useful narratives, related to high and low gain

12 hypotheses related to high and low gain (Tainter et al. 2003, Allen et al 2001)

Presentation in lab

  • High gain system will self-repair, but low gain system will manage by manipulating part
  • Can perturb high gain systems, but low gain systems will be more sensitive to perturbations

[Tim:  also undergraduate students]

Ed Eglar

  • Don't like writing papers, could have a course that fulfills a science requirement
  • Found gives a language to understand and express things that couldn't express before
  • Undergraduates change:  thinking processes changed, get to ask more important questions
  • Lunches every Tuesday
  • Military background, gives input into academics
  • Have a new way of thinking

2008/07/18 12:30 Ockie Bosch, "ISSS 2009, Making Liveable, Sustainable Systems Unremarkable", ISSS Madison 2008

ISSS Madison 2008, 52nd Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences

This digest was created in real-time during the meeting, based on the speaker's presentation(s) and comments from the audience. The content should not be viewed as an official transcript of the meeting, but only as an interpretation by a single individual. Lapses, grammatical errors, and typing mistakes may not have been corrected. Questions about content should be directed to the originator. The digest has been made available for purposes of scholarship, posted on the ISSS web site by David Ing.

Ockie Bosch


Arrive on July 12 for the evening event

Context for conference:

  • Why is systems thinking kept out of science and mainstream problem solving?
  • Brisbane issue of liveability, as a constraint for sustainability
  • For whom:  long run
  • How long
  • At what cost
  • Of what

Many examples of liveability from urban areas 

  • Transport: rail track through your front garden
  • Energy, emissions trading, who pays?
  • Improved health
  • Food security and land use

Can liveability be achieved with sustainability?

  • How can we make liveable, sustainable systems unremarkable

First day plenary

Second day, systems thinking in practice

Workshops

  • Progressive plenary session
  • Systems education 
  • ANZSYS
  • User-centric policy design

Pre-conference training workshop, targeted at middle management of developing countries, sponsored by Unesco

Progressive plenary session:

  • Travel to various points around Brisbane, keynote speaker at each point
  • Identify issues for major analysis, with systemic interventions
  • Friday morning group presentations

Paddock to plate conference dinner:  local producers, giving talks

Combined effort by School of Natural and Rural S'ystems Management (U. Queensland) and ANZSYS

School combines natural systems, rural/social and business/economics

University of Queensland, 37000 students

University-wide Masters of Sustainable Systems

Hull 2011 Retrospective

The 55th Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences has held at San Jose State University, July 17-22, 2011. The main page for the conference is at http://isss.org/world/2011_Hull_UK .

The conference schedule is at http://isss.org/world/2011_program, with a online softcopy program book accessible as a [preview in browser] or a [download from http://isss.org/conferences/hull2011/2011_Program_Book.pdf].

Note: These digests and recordings do not represent the complete conference program. Afternoon sessions were held in parallel streams, spreading the audience across interests of choice.

Plenaries: [Monday] [Tuesday] [Wednesday] [Thursday] [Friday]

Plenaries

Speakers: [David Lane] [Gerald Midgley] [Louis Klein ] [Jennifer Wilby] [Peter Checkland] [Jifa Gu] [Ranulph Glanville ] [panel Tuesday] [Eve Mitleton-Kelly] [Michael C. Jackson] [Samantha Robitaille] [panel Wednesday] [Jim Hazy] [Alexander Laszlo] [Mark Drewell] [Kathia Castro-Laszlo] [panel Thursday] [Feedback from SIG Working Groups] [David Greenwood] [Mary Edson ] [David Ing] [Annual General Meeting]
Time Speaker(s) Slides / Digests Audio Video
2011/07/18 08:55 Jennifer Wilby "Conference Opening"

Dr. Barbara Allen, "Welcome"

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as ODP] (nn MB)

[Welcome MP3 (128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/18 09:00 David Lane, "Working across the Qualitative/Quantitative Spectrum: Applications of System Dynamics in the Public Sector"

[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (2 MB)

[Lane MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/18 09:50 Gerald Midgley, "When Science Meets Law: Framing, Paradox and Ritual in the use of Forensic DNA Evidence"

[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Midgley MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/18 10:10 Louis Klein, "Systemic Consulting Revisited – A Paradigm Walk" [text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Klein MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/18 11:55 Jennifer Wilby "All Together Now: Working Across Disciplines" [text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Wilby MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/19 09:00 Peter Checkland, "Four Conditions (Frequently Ignored) for Serious Systems Thinking and Action" [text digest]

[plenary session slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[plenary session slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Checkland MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/19 09:55 Jifa Gu, "Wuli-Shili-Renli System Approach to the Queuing Problems"

[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Gu MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/19 11:15 Ranulph Glanville, "A Bestiary of Wickednesses"

[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Glanville MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/19 12:05 Panel on Systems "-abilities": Peter Checkland, Jifa Gu, Ranulph Glanville - [Question panel Tuesday MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/20 09:00

Eve Mitleton-Kelly, "A Governance Framework for a National Project Delivered Locally by Multiple Partners: A Complexity Theory Perspective"

[text digest]

[plenary session slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[plenary session slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Mitleton-Kelly MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/20 09:45 Michael C. Jackson, "Systems Thinking, Complex Projects, and the Applied Management Disciplines"

[[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Jackson MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/20 11:00 Samantha Robitaille, "Managing Complex Research Programmes in Complex Organisations"

[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Robitaille MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/20 11:40 Stephen Hayes, "The ‘Conspiracy of Optimism – Why Mega Projects Fail"

[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Hayes MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/20 12:05 Panel on Complex Project Management: Eve Mitleton-Kelly, Michael C. Jackson, Samantha Robitaille, Stephen Hayes - [Panel Wednesday MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/21 09:00

Jim Hazy, "Rethinking Leadership and Social Value Creation: Incorporating Complexity and Individual Agency into the Systems Perspective"

[text digest]

[plenary session slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[plenary session slides as ODP] (22 MB)

[Hazy MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/21 09:55 Alexander Laszlo,, "Systemic by Nature: The Making of a Systems Leader"

[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Laszlo MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/21 11:00 Mark Drewell,, "Narratives and Leadership for a Global System in Transition"

[[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Drewell MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/21 11:30 Kathia Castro Laszlo, "Beyond Systems Thinking: The Role of Beauty and Love in the Transformation of our World"

[[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Castro-Laszlo MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/21 12:05 Panel on Systemic Leadership: Jim Hazy, Alexander Laszlo, Mark Drewell, Kathia Castro Laszlo - [Panel Thursday MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/22 09:00 Alexander Laszlo, Kathia Castro-Laszlo and Joanne Tippett, "Feedback from the SIG Working Groups" [text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Feedback MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2011/07/22 09:15 David Greenwood, Anatol Rapoport 2011 Award Honoree

[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Greenwood MP3 128kbps] -
2011/07/22 09:30 Mary Edson, Sir Geoffrey Vickers 2011 Award Honoree

[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Edson MP3 128kbps] -
2011/07/22 11:10 David Ing, "Service Systems, Natural Systems: Sciences in Synthesis"

[outline]

[slides as PDF] (2.2 MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as ODP] (3 MB)

[Ing MP3 128kbps] [Ing MP4 1280x720p]

[Ing MP4 720x400]

[Ing MP4 480x272]

2012/07/20 10:00 Jennifer Wilby, ISSS Annual General Meeting

-

[AGM MP3 128kbps] -

[jump to top]

[see other ISSS retrospectives]

San Jose 2012 Retrospective

The 56th Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences was held at San Jose State University, July 15-20, 2012. The main page for the conference is at http://isss.org/world/sanjose-2012 .

The conference schedule, with a softcopy program book, is available at http://isss.org/world/conference-schedule-2012 .

Note: These digests and recordings do not represent the complete conference program. Afternoon sessions were held in parallel streams, spreading the audience across interests of choice.

Preconference [Sunday]

Plenaries: [Monday] [Tuesday] [Wednesday] [Thursday] [Friday]

Systems Basics: [Monday] [Tuesday] [Wednesday] [Thursday]

Preconference

Time Speakers Abstract Audio Video
2012/07/15 19:30 Humberto Maturana Romesín and Ximena Dávila Yáñez (with Sebastián Gaggero), "Cultural-Biological Matrix of Human Existence" [abstract] [Maturana MP3 128vbr] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)

Plenaries

Speakers: [David Ing] [Rafael Ramirez] [panel Monday] [synthesis Tuesday] [Jim Spohrer] [Garry Peterson] [panel Tuesday] [synthesis Wednesday] [Timothy F. H. Allen] [Stuart Umpleby] [panel Wednesday] [synthesis Thursday] [Minna Takala] [John Kineman] [panel Thursday] [synthesis Friday] [transition] [Alexander Laszlo] [Nam Nguyen] [Will Varey] [Andreas Hieronymi] [membership meeting]
Time Speaker(s) Slides / Digests Audio Video
2012/07/16 08:45 Jennifer Wilby "Conference Opening"

David Ing, "Welcome and Outline"

[Outline slides as PDF] (4 MB) [preview in browser]

[Outline slides as ODP] (23 MB)

[Wilby MP3 (128kbps]

[Ing MP3 128kbps]

[ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/16 09:00 David Ing, "Rethinking Systems Thinking: Learning and Coevolving with the World" [Ing position description]

[text digest]

[Ing slides as PDF] (4 MB) [preview in browser]

[Ing slides as ODP] (2 MB)

[Ing MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/16 09:45 Rafael Ramirez, "Is there a 'Peak Oil' effect on 'Service Management', 'Systems Science', and 'Service Science' Research?" [Ramirez position description]

[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Ramirez MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/16 10:45 Discussant panel: Kyoichi (Jim) Kijima, Gerald Midgley, David Ing, Rafael Ramirez [text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Discussant panel Monday MP3 128vbr] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/17 08:45 Gary S. Metcalf and Pamela Buckle Henning, "Cumulative Synthesis"

David Ing, "Plenary Session: Tuesday"

[text digest]

[plenary session slides as PDF] (3 MB) [preview in browser]

[plenary session slides as ODP] (22 MB)

[Synthesis Tuesday MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/17 09:00 Jim Spohrer, "Reframing The Skeleton and Reframing Progress with Universities" [Spohrer position description]

[text digest]

[Spohrer slides as PDF] (3 MB) [preview in browser]

[Spohrer slides as PPS] (8 MB)

[Spohrer MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/17 09:45 Garry Peterson, "Resilience, Ecological Regime Shifts and Social-Ecological Transformation" [Peterson position description]

[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Peterson MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/17 10:45 Discussant panel: Vincent Barabba, Len Troncale, Jim Spohrer, Garry Peterson - [Discussant panel Tuesday MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/18 08:45 Gary S. Metcalf and Pamela Buckle Henning, "Cumulative Synthesis"

David Ing, "Plenary Session: Wednesday"

[text digest]

[plenary session slides as PDF] (3 MB) [preview in browser]

[plenary session slides as ODP] (22 MB)

[Synthesis Wednesday MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/18 09:00 Timothy F. H. Allen, "Insights into Service Coming from Biology" [Allen position description]

[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (42 MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (4.7 MB)

[Allen MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/18 09:45 Stuart Umpleby, "A Second Expansion of Science" [Umpleby position description]

[text digest]

[Umpleby slides as PDF] (51 MB) [preview in browser]

[Umpleby slides as PPS] (170 MB)

[Umpleby MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/18 10:45 Discussant panel: Jennifer Wilby, Kathia Castro-Laszlo, Timothy F. H. Allen, Stuart Umpleby - [Discussant panel Wednesday MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/19 08:45 Gary S. Metcalf and Pamela Buckle Henning, "Cumulative Synthesis"

David Ing, "Plenary Session: Thursday"

[text digest]

[plenary session slides as PDF] (3 MB) [preview in browser]

[plenary session slides as ODP] (22 MB)

[Synthesis Thursday MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/19 09:00 Minna Takala, "New Institutions for Innovation - Changing Practices for Development" [Takala position description]

[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (3.2 MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as ODP] (11 MB)

[Takala MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/19 09:45 John Kineman, "R-Theory: Who, What, and Why" [Kineman position description]

[text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Kineman MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/19 10:45 Discussant panel: Gerald Midgely, Lynn Rasmussen, Minna Takala, John Kineman - [Discussant panel Thursday MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/20 08:45 Gary S. Metcalf and Pamela Buckle Henning, "Cumulative Synthesis" [text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Synthesis Friday MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/20 09:00 Alexander Laszlo, with Kathia Castro-Laszlo, Allenna Leonard, "Presidential transition and memorials"

-

[Transition MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/20 09:15 Alexander Laszlo, "Increasing the Range and Reach of the Systems Sciences: A Call to Reinvigorate the Systems Movement" [abstract]

[text digest]

[Laszlo slides as PDF] (4 MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Laszlo MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/20 10:00 Nam Nguyen, Ockie Bosch, "ISSS 2013, Hai Phong City, Vietnam"

[text digest]

[Nguyen slides as PDF] (3.5 MB) [preview in browser]

[Nguyen slides as PPS] (12 MB)

[Nguyen MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/20 11:00 Will Varey, "Apithological Systems Theory: Learnings from Ecology", Sir Geoffrey Vickers Award 2012 Honoree [text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Varey MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/20 11:15 Andreas Hieronymi, "The Integration Challenge for the Systems Sciences: Highlighting Internal and External Interconnections", Anatol Rapoport Award 2012 Honoree [text digest]

[slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPS] (nn MB)

[Hieronymi MP3 128kbps] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/20 11:30 Jennifer Wilby, ISSS 2012 membership meeting - [Membership meeting MP3 128kbps] -

[jump to top]

Systems Basics

Speakers: [Debora Hammond] [James R. Simms] [Pille Bunnell] [Allenna Leonard] [Jack Ring] [Giles Hindle] [John Pourdehnad] [Peter Jones] [Judith Rosen] [Ian Mitroff] [Bob Cavana] [David L. Hawk]
Times Speaker(s) Slides Audio Video
2012/07/16 13:30 Debora Hammond, "Roots of the Systems Movement" [Hammond slides as PDF] (2.5 MB) [preview in browser]

[Hammond slides as PPS] (3.7 MB)

[Hammond MP3 128vbr] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/16 14:45 James R. Simms, "Living Systems Theory" [slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPT] (nn MB)

[Simms MP3 128vbr] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/16 16:15 Pille Bunnell, "Ecological Resilience and Panarchy" [slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPT] (nn MB)

[Bunnell MP3 128vbr] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/17 13:30 Allenna Leonard, "Organizational Cybernetics" (sketches were drawn on blackboard) [Leonard MP3 128vbr] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/17 14:45 Jack Ring, "Science of Generic Design" [slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPT] (nn MB)

[Ring MP3 128vbr] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/17 16:15 Giles Hindle, "Soft Systems Methodology" [slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPT] (nn MB)

[Hindle MP3 128vbr] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/18 13:30 John Pourdehnad, "Idealized Design and Interactive Planning" (sketches were drawn on blackboard) [Pourdehnad MP3 128vbr] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/18 14:45 Peter Jones, "Language Action Perspective" [slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPT] (nn MB)

[Jones MP3 128vbr] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/18 16:15 Judith Rosen, "Anticipatory Systems and the Modeling Relation" [slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPT] (nn MB)

[Rosen MP3 128vbr] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/19 13:30 Ian Mitroff, "Inquiring Systems" [Mitroff slides as PDF] (2.5 MB) [preview in browser]

[Mitrofff slides as PPS] (3.7 MB)

[Mitroff MP3 128vbr] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/19 14:45 Bob Cavana, "System Dynamics" [slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPT] (nn MB)

[Cavana MP3 128vbr] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)
2012/07/19 16:15 David L. Hawk, "Socio-Technical and Socio-Ecological Systems Perspectives" [slides as PDF] (nn MB) [preview in browser]

[slides as PPT] (nn MB)

[Hawk MP3 128vbr] [ISSS Conference Video] (MP4)

[jump to top]

[see other ISSS retrospectives]